The geographic shift that has accompanied this “second wave of urbanization” (UNFPA 2007) arguably puts the cities of Asia and Africa at the heart of the sustainability agenda for the coming decades (Simone and Pieterse 2017). Given the infrastructure deficits and limited fiscal base of local authorities in many of these settings, rapid urbanization is likely to create more “slum urbanism”, with city governments and housing markets unable to keep pace with rapid growth (Pieterse 2014; United Nations Human Settlements Programme [UN-Habitat] 2016, p. 37). In cities where urban growth far outpaces economic growth, governments and other urban stakeholders struggle to respond to socioeconomic stress, let alone multiple environmental crises.


Figure 2.1: City growth rates very high high medium low very low 0 mega cities Source: UNEP 2019a, p. 32 Geo Cities Ch 4, Fig. 2.2


Figure 2.2: Population distribution by size and class of settlement and region, 2018 and 2030 Population distribution by size class of settlement* and region, 2018 and 2030


100 80 60


10 million or more 5 to 10 million 1 to 5 million 500 000 to 1 million Fewer than 500 000 Rural


40 20 0


2018 2030 Africa


2018 2030 Asia


Source: United Nations 2018, p. 6 Urban Dynamics for Environmental Action 23


2018 2030 Europe


2018 2030


Latin America and the Caribbean


2018 2030


Northern America


2018 2030 Oceania


* The population of cities with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants is estimated by taking the difference between the total population and the population in cities with 500,000 inhabitants or more. The number of cities with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants is not estimated.


1 big cities 2 medium cities 3 small cities 4 Annual average urban population growth rate (per cent) 5 6


Beyond these regional differences, this second wave of urbanization is also characterised by the growing importance of medium-sized cities and peri-urban areas. While megacities often receive more political and media attention, small and medium-sized cities are among the fastest growing urban areas (Figure 2.1), albeit with variations between regions (Figure 2.2). By 2025, population gains in small and medium-sized cities in emerging- market countries will outpace the combined increase from developed economies and emerging-market megacities (McKinsey Global Institute 2011). In rapidly urbanizing contexts, small and medium-sized cities often capture growth from rural-to-urban migration (UN-Habitat 2015a). However, future trends show that these cities tend to be


Percentage


Urban vulnerability classes


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