expanding black market. Te result may be a shrinking regulated market, reduced tax receipts, and increased risk for players.
Do you expect operators to adjust RTPs across their portfolios? Are high-value players more sensitive to RTP changes?
Yes, but approaches will vary. Operators are unlikely to reduce RTP beyond the point where it damages player experience or competitiveness. We expect modest reductions, typically in the range of one-two percentage points, alongside a greater focus on promoting lower-RTP games.
Could lowering RTP reduce overall play in a competitive mar- ket?
At extreme levels, yes. If regulated operators offer sub-90 per cent RTP while the black market offers 96 per cent, high-value players may migrate. However, small reductions of one-two per cent are unlikely to be strongly felt by most players, particularly if offset by improved en- gagement or promotions. Tat said, mathematically, lower RTP means less money circulating within the system, so overall play will decrease. Combined with potential migration to the black market, this would reduce regulated market volume.
What behavioural changes might result from a drop in RTP?
Players may notice changes depending on how game maths is adjusted. Tis could include: u
Reduced maximum wins
u Less frequent high-value payouts u Lower bonus frequency u Reduced bonus value
Frequent players may detect these patterns, particularly as RTP reductions become more aggressive.
Could lower RTP shift spend into other verticals?
Possibly, but it is unlikely to be a major driver. Operators may push players toward products that offer better returns on marketing spend, but tax structures across verticals are a more significant factor.
Could lowering RTP damage trust or loyalty?
Will lowering RTP strengthen or weaken the UK regulated mar- ket?
Ultimately, it weakens the regulated market. However, if it becomes necessary for operators to remain viable, it may be one of the few available options.
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Only partially. Germany’s black-market growth is driven by a combination of factors, including strict gameplay restrictions and taxation. However, high tax rates are a key driver. Black-market operators can offer higher RTP, more bonuses, and fewer restrictions, making their proposition more attractive.
What should the industry prioritise: player value, margins, or product mix?
Tis ultimately depends on each operator’s strategy. Tere is no single answer.
Yes. High-value players spend more time playing and are more likely to notice changes in loss rates. Tey are also more likely to research RTP, follow streamers, and evaluate games before committing time and money.
Is RTP a meaningful competitive differentiator?
It is a factor, but not the primary one. Volatility, features, and maximum win potential tend to have a greater influence on player choice.
Could RTP become a battleground for acquisition and reten- tion?
Potentially, but it is just one of several levers. Operators must balance RTP alongside bonusing, marketing, and overall profitability. Is Germany a valid comparison for the UK?
It is more likely to affect loyalty than trust. Players may still trust operators but feel they are receiving less value, similar to a reduced loyalty rewards scheme. Over time, this can weaken brand affinity.
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