Politics moves quickly, elections counts move super quickly, so Kalshi got a lot of attention


in the US because of the election. So, that was trigger number one: the ability of prediction markets and Kalshi specifically to offer


trading on election outcomes on a CFTC regulated platform.


No longer a sideshow, Kalshi and Polymarket, the world’s most popular prediction market operators, were even featured on a South Park episode in September. “Prediction markets have officially entered the mainstream,” Kalshi CEO, Tarek Mansour, proudly posted on X about the episode.


Teir rise is one of the most compelling changes in the sports betting market in years. Not only do they highlight so many of the key issues facing regulators today, but trading on the outcome of real events could also bring with it a new demographic of tech savvy players.


I caught up with James Kilsby at Vixio to discuss the reasons behind the sudden surge in popularity. We discussed some of the wider regulatory issues and the role the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has played in allowing them to grow in the US. We also talked about what could lie in store globally for the sector and how ultimately the fate of prediction markets in the US could end up in the hands of the Supreme Court.


James Marrison: In conducting research into prediction markets, I remembered that I had covered the topic back in 2023 when G3 ran a story on betting on the US elections. Back then it was really just a small number of universities that allowed people to wager against other people’s own predictions. Suddenly, prediction markets are getting a huge amount of coverage in the mainstream press.


James, could you give us some background into this phenomenon? How did prediction markets transform to


JAMES KILSBY Chief Analyst &


Vice President, Vixio


JAMES MARRISON Informar! Editor G3 Media


models running on computers on campuses to today?


James Kilsby: You're exactly right that prediction markets were a very niche thing and seen as something I think of more academic value than actual commercial value, really prior to 2024. Tere was a small number of platforms. Predictive - was the most prominent - that were able to operate political prediction markets under a kind of no action exemption from the CFTC. But we've really seen two triggers that have caused the explosion of interest and the disruptive impact of prediction markets in North America.


Te first one was the 2024 presidential election. A few weeks prior Kalshi won a court ruling that allowed it to offer trading on the outcome of political elections on its platform. And that offering gathered mass mainstream attention. Results did show that prediction markets are more current and reflecting mass sentiment of outcomes than a poll can ever be which was the X number of people being polled two weeks ago.


Politics moves quickly, elections counts move super quickly so Kalshi got a lot of attention in the US because of the election. So, that was trigger number one: the ability of prediction markets and Kalshi specifically to offer trading on election outcomes on a CFTC regulated platform.


Te second one, and I think more directly impactful and disruptive to the traditional gaming industry has been the expansion of prediction markets to not only include politics as well as financial indicators, but also the outcome of sporting events.


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