IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT MORTALITY ON ADOLESCENTS’ LABOR SUPPLY 105
child schooling than a father’s death. This finding does not contradict the hypothesis that the death of a prime-age adult (especially one who is work- ing, and thus contributing to household income) has a negative effect on child schooling. In fact I also confirm in this study that a mother’s death has an equal and significant negative impact on child schooling for boys and girls. In this section I detail the main findings on the impact of prime-age adult mortality on the time allocation of adolescents. In the analysis that follows, I use two different definitions of prime-age adults: those between the ages of 20 and 64, and those between the ages of 20 and 44. The former corresponds mainly to the age range for labor force participation, while the latter focuses on the age range in which, as shown in the section “Mortality Change,” I found substantial increases in mortality rate.12 I consider a variety of measures of prime-age adult mortality—the total number of deaths in the household, prime-age adult deaths (ages 20–64 or 20–44), and deaths of working mem- bers and of prime-age working adult members, differentiated by gender and occurring between 1998 and 2004—as explanatory variables. For the data, I do not capture deaths of members who moved out of the households.13 Instead, I include occurrences of death of new members who moved into the house- holds, which have a relatively smaller effect on time allocation decisions. Mortality estimates could accordingly be biased in either direction.14 Table 5.4 shows how prime-age adult mortality in the very near future, 1998–2001, affects school enrollment in 1998, that is, ex ante. If future mor- tality among prime-age adults in the household is preceded by the need for home care, additional incomes, or both, it may change the time allocation of adolescents.15 Since this analysis is cross-sectional, I include initial grade and
12 There are some reservations. First, although the age range 15–64 is a standard definition of members of a population in the labor force, we may potentially miss the effects of deaths among the elderly who were receiving pensions from the government. Second, as discussed subsequently, there were 18 children aged 14–19 (as of the 1998 survey) who died in the period 1998–2004. I do not include these adolescents in the analysis, but the effects of their deaths on their siblings are included. Third, labor market employment among those aged 15 and 16 is rare, but since the focus of our analysis is on their transition to the labor market, whether or not
they are employed is not directly relevant. 13 In the South African context, owing to the extensive use of migrant labor, it is often someone outside the household who takes responsibility for supporting child schooling. In this case, mortality in the household may not matter. In other words, we have strong evidence if we find a signifi-
cant negative effect on adolescents’ schooling. 14 Even though tracking individuals who moved away from survey sites was extensively attempted, it was necessary to drop from the analysis individuals who have died as well as those who could not be found. In considering the selectivity problem that may arise from mortality during the period, the results for adolescents aged 14–19 are robust to prime-age adult mortality in gen-
eral, and those for female adults are robust to prime-age male adult deaths. 15 Ainsworth, Beegle, and Koda (2005) and Yamano and Jayne (2005) conducted similar analyses on ex ante behavior. Our results largely confirm their findings.
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