IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT MORTALITY ON ADOLESCENTS’ LABOR SUPPLY 93
excess mortality in the KIDS sample at the end of the 1990s for each age group. The figures also show that excess mortality is higher for males than for females.3
Table 5.1 reports the probit results on individual-level mortality, control- ling for the age-specific non-AIDS mortality rates. The non-AIDS mortality rate is that from the ASSA 2002 model. This variable is included to control for the pre-AIDS level of mortality rate. The various results incorporate cluster fixed effects (columns 1–4), allow for household random effects (columns 5–7), and finally incorporate household fixed effects (columns 8–10). Column 1 reports the results using only the non-AIDS mortality rate and a gender dummy. The results confirm that the benchmark non-AIDS level of mor- tality significantly explains mortality over the period 1998–2004, though the gender dummy is insignificant. Column 2 introduces age-group indicators to capture age-specific changes in mortality during the period. With those aged 15–19 as the omitted group, we find significant increases in mortality among those aged 20–44. Households faced some exogenous changes in prime-age adult mortality among those aged 20–44 over the period. To distinguish age- specific mortality changes between men and women, columns 3 and 4 report the results of separate estimations by gender. The results show that there are larger increases in mortality among men than among women, particularly among men aged 30 and older. However, during the period under study, those aged 20–44 experienced significant increases in mortality across both groups. Given that these findings might have been generated by unobservable household-specific factors correlated with the household demographic struc- ture, I alter the model specifications. Columns 5–7 report the results of probit regressions for the within-household incidence of mortality with household random effects. Columns 8–10 use household fixed effects in linear models. Both the random-effect and fixed-effect estimates show qualitatively similar effects of the age indicators and individual characteristics. Yet the signifi- cance of parameter estimates in the fixed-effect estimates is slightly lower than that for the random-effect probit results.
These results are important: they confirm that those between 20 and 44 years of age in 1998 were more likely to die than others in each household. Increases in the incidence of mortality among the prime-age adults should cause a reallocation of resources within the household, including changes in time allocation among household members. This effect arises as household members seek to mitigate the negative impacts of adult mortality on house- hold welfare.
3 It is generally agreed that female mortality is higher than that for males. It is possible that male migrant workers came back home to die, which increases the estimate of the excess mor- tality rate in our sample.
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