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96 CHAPTER 5


Impact of Prime-Age Adult Mortality on Schooling and Labor Supply


Prime-Age Adult Mortality and Labor Supply


A handful of studies examine the impact of prime-age adult mortality on labor supply. With the HIV/AIDS epidemic striking most men and women at their prime age, an investigation of this phenomenon remains a necessity in developing countries generally and in South Africa in particular. Some studies focus on this impact in countries where the labor supply is largely within the agricultural sector. In contrast, very few studies examine this impact within the nonagricultural sector. The key focus of this chapter is the examination of changes in the time allocation of adolescents who experience prime-age adult death or illness in their households. In order to smooth household con- sumption and income, adolescents exit school and enter the labor market (whether employed or unemployed), and female household members alter their labor force participation.


A few studies empirically examine the impact of AIDS mortality on labor supply. An analysis of two LFSs (1990–91 and 2000–01) in Tanzania undertaken by Wobst and Arndt (2004) revealed an important trend in this regard; the data suggest a dramatic increase in labor force participation rates for chil- dren aged 10–14, from 23 percent to 46 percent, implying a tendency to exit primary schools over the decade. This chapter is similar to their paper in that I focus on adolescents’ time allocation. However, I explore this issue using micro-longitudinal data instead of the aggregate measures that are used in their analysis.


There are two studies on this topic from dominantly agrarian settings: Bee- gle (2005) and Donovan et al. (2003). Using panel data from Tanzania, Beegle (2005) explores how prime-age adult mortality affects the time allocation of surviving household members and the portfolio of household farming activi- ties. The author analyzes hours spent farming and on household chores across demographic groups and finds small and insignificant changes in the labor supply of individuals in households that experience a prime-age adult death. While some farm activities are temporarily scaled back and wage employment falls after a male death, households did not shift cultivation away from sub- sistence farming. Moreover, they did not appear to reduce their diversification of income sources more than six months after a death.


Donovan et al. (2003) analyze the effects of prime-age adult morbid- ity and mortality in rural Rwanda using recent data from household surveys with overlapping samples and retrospective information on deaths within the household. They show that loss of agricultural labor was most pronounced for tasks involving cropping and animal husbandry relative to other potential


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