IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT MORTALITY ON ADOLESCENTS’ LABOR SUPPLY 91


Several findings emerge from the analysis. I find first that deaths of prime- age working adults significantly increase the labor supply of both male and female adolescents, stopping their schooling. Deaths of prime-age adults in the future decrease female school enrollment, suggesting that girls shift activ- ity, possibly staying at home to take care of the sick or of the household more generally. Second, since the enrollment of male adolescents is decreased prior to the death of a working adult, their response is different, intended to com- pensate for an income loss. These findings imply that excess mortality among prime-age adults disrupts human capital formation in the society.


Mortality Change


The 2004 KIDS data allow us to link death with specific changes among house- hold members, because the data contain retrospective information on those who died between 1998 and 2004. More specifically, the data allow an identi- fication of the individuals who died and when the death occurred. (However, to minimize emotional distress, respondents were not asked about deaths when these had occurred up to three months prior to the 2004 survey.) Com- bining this information with the roster information on individuals in 1998, I can identify the age at death. This information is critical for our analysis as it enables us to identify changes over the period 1998–2004. This corresponds to the time when South Africa experienced substantial increases in prime-age adult mortality (for example, Groenewald et al. 2005; Statistics South Africa 2005). In other words, the period covered is quite appropriate to identify the impacts of prime-age adult mortality on the time allocation decisions of children and housewives.


Figures 5.1 and 5.2 show the changes in mortality rates between 1998 and 2004 for the populations of males and of females, respectively. One of the two series plotted on the figures presents information gathered from the surveyed households. The changes are reported across age groups. Each fig- ure illustrates the non-AIDS mortality rate for South Africa as one of the two series. These data are from the 2002 model estimates of the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) for 1996 and for all racial groups. Data for 1996 were chosen to provide a credible non-AIDS mortality rate relative to the period spanned by the KIDS data. Age-specific non-AIDS mortality rates for men and women are the benchmark rates against which the KIDS mortality rates— the second data series in Figures 5.1 and 5.2—are considered in this section (see Table 5.1). Since the sample period I consider spans six years, the mor- tality rate of the KIDS household members over the period is converted into annual terms assuming a constant mortality rate throughout the period. The two figures show significant increases in adult mortality for those aged 20–44 across gender—the gap between the two lines in the two figures reflects


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142  |  Page 143  |  Page 144  |  Page 145  |  Page 146  |  Page 147  |  Page 148  |  Page 149  |  Page 150