GFK ANALYSIS  HARDWARE


Are Notebook sales on the slide?


Matt Gibbs, GfK Account Director, IT examines the state of the notebook market in the face of the burgeoning tablet industry and questions the sales trajectory leading into 2011…


“Although web-book sales are


accelerating, by the end of


December it is likely they will only account for 25 per cent of notebook sales


at around £60 million.” Matt Gibbs, GfK


In a fast moving marketplace such as computing, which in October grew by 15 per cent in value on 2009, it’s common that certain product areas can hog the limelight. In terms of column and web inches of late, it’s very clearly the tablet/i-Pad/web-browser product segment that’s in the spotlight. Does this mean that this product sector is trampling all before it and that it’s all we’ll be seeing in shops come this time next year? Evidence so far tells us not.


Notebook sales have not declined on 2009, despite the focus on web-books. Looking purely at retail sales, the


facts are that notebook volume sales in the quarter to October 2010 are a little under two per cent ahead of sales in 2009. They’re knocking on double-digit growth. So, despite the advent of the shiny new product segment, more money was spent at retail on notebooks than the same period last year. While we’re at it, desktop sales are nearly 20 per cent ahead in value terms. Growth rates in mobile computing


sales excluding web-books have certainly slowed since the first half of 2010, when growth rates were commonly in the order of five to ten per cent. But, into this growth we have to factor the ‘artificial’ growth caused by the UHA scheme that ran for a good portion of the year, and which at outset was designed to assist over 250,000 households. Fully utilised, this is a significant tranche of hardware that might not have otherwise been purchased. Although web-Book sales are accelerating fast, by December it is likely that they will still only account for around 25 per cent of the value of notebook sales at around £60 million.


www.pcr–online.biz The PC’s segment most at risk of a


downturn seems to be netbooks. This segment, which has always inhabited a price range somewhat below a fully specified notebook at around £200 to £300, has now been in decline for a few months in both units and value. It seems likely that retail sales of 216,000 units in December 2009 will go down as the ‘peak’ month for this product, since with volumes in October 2010 down by about ten per cent to 128,000, overtaking this figure seems unlikely. Between September and October the number of selling web-book models on the market has doubled to 24, and this is likely to advance further still by the Christmas peak. Are we therefore likely to see netbook sales deteriorate further as shelf space is given over to web-books? Web-book sales units per shop, per month already equal that of netbooks at around 12, so this does seem plausible. While netbooks may be falling in sales, the main notebook sector does remain strong. For this situation to continue and to ensure incremental growth rather than cannibalisation, it will be essential to focus on the abilities and specification offered by each segment.


January PCR 51


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