MACAU BUSINESS
“If casinos were to remain closed for the rest of [the first quarter], GGR would show a y/y decline of over 70 percent.” “There are mixed views on how virulent and lethal this
outbreak may be (so far, contagion is much worse than SARS, but mortality is materially lower),” the analysts at Stanford C. Bernstein added. “At this stage, we see Macau having a solid recovery in [the second half of this year], with recovery contingent on 1) the contagion being brought under control and travel into Macau resuming, and 2) China’s economy not faltering materially and reducing customer confidence.”
Visitation plunge
Apart from the casino shutdown, both the central government and Macau authorities have hurtled to roll out an array of measures to halt and slow this rapid transmission. In addition to the lockdown of Wuhan and 12 nearby cities in Hubei province - where all public transportation services were shut down and about 40 million residents were not allowed to leave the cities without valid reasons - Beijing has banned all outbound tour groups and the sale of outbound flights and hotel packages for the mainlanders from end-January until further notice. The central government has also banned issuing new individual travel visas for the mainlanders to visit Macau from end-January for an unspecified period of time, while the individual visas to the city previously issued remain valid. These mean the mainlanders can only travel to Macau now with a family or business permit. Mainland Chinese visitors with a family, business and other permits only accounted for about 30 per cent of the total number of mainland travellers to the city in 2019, according to official data. The Macau administration has also rolled out various
preventive measures in recent times, for instance, the opening hours of the Gongbei Border Gate, the city’s main checkpoint with the mainland, has been adjusted from 6 am - 1 am to 6 am - 10 pm; visitors from Hubei province and those who have been to Hubei province in the past 14 days would be denied entry to Macau without a valid certificate confirming they are free of the Wuhan Coronavirus, and others. The ferry service between Macau and Hong Kong has also shut down since early February until further notice to
24 MARCH 2020
minimise the mobility of people, while many flights to the city have been cancelled. The visitation to Macau — where the mainlanders account for over 70 per cent of the city’s visitor arrivals — has taken a hit amid this public health alert, as shown in the visitation data during the CNY holiday. According to the Macau Government Tourism Office, the number of visitors to Macau between January 24 and January 30 plunged 78.3 per cent to about 261,100 from the Chinese New Year period last year. The number of mainland travellers skydipped 83.3 per cent to just 149,200 in this year’s CNY period.
Worse than SARS
Andy Wu Keng Kuong, chairperson of the Macau Travel Industry Council, noted the industry was slightly pessimistic towards the tally of visitors to Macau for the CNY period before the outbreak, given the loss of the stream in the past six months. Albeit there was a 10 per cent gain in the total number of travellers to Macau in 2019, but the growth has slowed down since July last year and there has been recorded a monthly decline in visitation since November, due to the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and the slowing mainland economy. “The impact of this new Coronavirus upon the city’s
tourism depends on how profound and rapid the illness could spread,” said Mr. Wu, expecting the visitation figures will fall by 80 per cent this February. “If it’s not well contained… the impact ... would be worse than SARS.” In the first half of 2003 — when the SARS outbreak was at
its peak — the total number of visitors to Macau declined 7.5 per cent year-on-year to merely 5 million. However, thanks to the introduction of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) by Beijing in July 2003 to salvage the economies of the two special administrative regions, in particular Hong Kong, the visitation figures to Macau finished with a 3.1 per cent hike for the entire year of 2003. The IVS allows mainlanders in designated mainland Chinese cities – the current tally standing at 49 – to visit Macau as independent travellers rather than as part of a tour group. Besides tourism, the city’s economy shrank 9.4 per cent
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94
