Intelligence
Happy holidays S
ince Trump was appointed leader in America’s last presidential election, one major segment of the
country’s economy has noticeably failed to keep up with global growth trends: travel and tourism. This can be attributed to a declining interest in visiting the USA from countries all over the world. In the period since Trump took office (February 2017 to September 2018), the number of international flight arrivals into the USA decreased by 1.5%, whereas the global average was an increase of 4%. Looking at the most recent period – the first three quarters of this year – international arrivals in the USA decreased by 1% while the global average was an increase of 2.7%.
However, the USA can expect a Christmas present from Britain this year, as UK yuletide holidays in American cities seem set to surge.
Seasons greetings
ForwardKeys, the researcher that analyses more than 17 million booking transactions per day, today releases research into long-haul holiday plans that reveals some destinations are Christmas crackers for Brits, and the USA is one of them.
Current bookings to Miami, Orlando and New York are well ahead of 2017 figures, up +39.6%, +14.3% and +2.9% respectively. Brits looking to fly long-distance for an overseas holiday this festive season are mainly heading to “hot Christmas” destinations. “This is particularly good news for the USA, which has registered a 3.3% decrease in air arrivals from the UK for the January to September period,” said Olivier Ponti, vice- president insights at ForwardKeys. “We see two main booking patterns – one seeking a ‘white Christmas’ and the other a ‘hot Christmas’, and bookings to the
Increases in flight bookings to popular Christmas destinations (year-on-year)
Fear not
While Brits are reigniting their interest in the USA and putting political concerns to one side, ForwardKeys says they seem to be “oblivious” to Brexit.
Miami +39.6%
Mumbai +36.3%
Cancun +22.3%
Dubai +14.4%
Orlando +14.3%
Cities receive more than 1.5% of current forward bookings from the UK to worldwide destinations. Bookings were made by September 29, 2018, for a departure during December 21-27, 2018, compared with December 22-28, 2017.
USA are looking good for both categories. New York is the most popular ‘white Christmas’ destination, and UK visitors are increasingly seduced by Orlando’s theme parks and Miami’s beaches for a ‘hot Christmas’.
“Other popular destinations, outside of the US and good for hot beach holidays to escape cold winter weather are Mumbai, Cancun and Dubai, for which bookings are currently ahead by 36.3%, 22.3% and 14.4% respectively.”
British arrivals from January to September 2018 (year-on-year)
Popular non-EU destinations
Turkey +57.5% Egypt +42.3% Tunisia +461.9% Popular EU destinations
Spain -1.8% Greece
+11.2% Italy
+2.2%
Portugal -0.7%
Ponti added: “We do not see anything much in the data to confirm a ‘Brexit effect’ on people’s booking behaviour for EU destinations currently. “However, January is traditionally a very important month for holiday bookings, so if there is still no Brexit deal by then and consumers start panicking, the outlook could rapidly start to look very different.” It reveals that, as of the beginning of October, forward air bookings by Brits for the 2019 summer season (defined as April to September) to EU destinations are ahead by 5.7% compared to the same period last year.
By comparison, British bookings to destinations beyond the EU are currently 28.5% ahead. One year ago, the growth rate of forward bookings to non-EU destinations was 4.3%.
Looking back on the year to October, outbound travel from the UK grew by 3.2%.
Besides the World Cup in Russia, which attracted many British football fans, the winning destinations were in the eastern Mediterranean and north Africa. Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey in particular registered impressive growth rates and a gain in market shares at the expense of Spain, Portugal and, to a lesser extent, Italy.
These destinations that were troubled by security fears, terror attacks and UK government travel bans three years ago are, at last, growing again in 2018.
■ ForwardKeys Opens up the UK takes place today from 10.30- 11.30am in the Press Conference Theatre at the International Media Centre (ME580)
05.11.2018 41
In new research revealed today at WTM London, ForwardKeys reports that it will take more than Trump and Brexit to dampen Britons’ love of travel to American and European destinations
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