Intelligence Looking ahead to 2019
With Brexit the hottest discussion topic in town, Euromonitor International predicts what the future of the travel industry might look like after March 29 next year
BREXIT BUSINESS
Brexit-related discussions in the WTM London programme include:
■ Four senior UK travel leaders from top travel companies across all sectors will join Caroline Bremner from Euromonitor International for Travel Leaders Speak – UK Travel Market: What to expect in 2019. 2.15-3.30pm, today (November 5), EU80
Predictions show a “no deal” Brexit could result in the pound falling in value by 10%
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“no-deal” Brexit would see five million fewer outbound trips in 2022, according to Euromonitor International.
If the UK crashes out of the European Union without a trade agreement, millions of Brits will stay at home and not book overseas holidays, reveal findings from global market research provider Euromonitor International’s study, which will be presented at WTM London tomorrow.
Euromonitor International’s research team predicts that a “no-deal” Brexit scenario next March would lead to a fall in outbound demand in 2019 and cause a ripple effect across many destinations, dependent on UK demand. Caroline Bremner, head of travel at Euromonitor International, said consumer confidence declined in 2018 for the EU, with the UK witnessing a faster deceleration. “A ‘no-deal’ Brexit is forecast to result in five million fewer outbound departures in 2022 than would have been the case under the baseline scenario,” she said.
“With the UK economy in a state of flux and a decline in the value of sterling, departures would stagnate over 2018 to 2020.”
She predicted that a “no-deal”
scenario would see the pound fall by about 10%, on top of a decline in 2018, which had seen the currency drop to its lowest level
30 05.11.2018
Euromonitor International predicts Spain may be one of many countries to suffer from a “no-deal” Brexit
in a year by the end of August. The falling value of sterling will make the UK more attractive to overseas visitors, but Bremner warned: “Any ‘no-deal Brexit bounce’ is only forecast to add 2% more arrivals in 2022 than under the baseline scenario.
“The USA would be the source market contributing the most under this scenario, but with fewer than 100,000 additional arrivals over 2019 to 2022.”
Furthermore, the fallout from a “no-deal” Brexit scenario would be felt worldwide, added Bremner. She pointed out Spain in particular, where UK travellers account for 21% of inbound revenues in 2018.
“Brexit could reduce 2019 receipts by $747 million, compared to a delayed free trade agreement, with the UK accounting for over half of that,” she said.
WTM London’s Paul Nelson said: “With less than five months until the UK leaves the EU, there is still huge uncertainty about what the future holds, with many commentators thinking the likelihood of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is increasing.
“It’s against this precarious backdrop that we hope to help the UK and global travel industry understand the potential impact of different scenarios so that they can plan for various eventualities. “Brexit has been woven into the fabric of most of our debates and sessions at WTM London because it is the key challenge that our delegates have to grapple with. “There were 46.6 million holiday visits abroad by UK residents in 2017 – if there’s ‘no deal’ in the negotiations, and the market does indeed drop by five million by 2022, that would represent a potential fall of about 10%.”
■ The invitation-only WTM Leaders’ Lunch will hear from top businesswoman Susan Hooper, who sits on the board of the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU). 11am-1.30pm, today (November 5), Platinum Suite 3&4
■ The Social Media and Digital Excellence in Brexit Britain panel features a destination marketing organisation, tourist attraction group and an accommodation provider. 12-1pm, November 6, TA190
■ Trends in Tourism Advertising in Digital and Traditional Media and a Glimpse of Brexit’s Effect is a presentation by two speakers from Nielsen, the world’s biggest market and media research company. 10.30-11.30am, November 6, ME580
■ Challenges Ahead for the Airline Industry sees aviation expert John Strickland analyse the outlook as Brexit looms. 10.30-10.50am, November 6, AF190
■ Hear more from Euromonitor International at the Keeping Ahead of Megatrends Shaping Travel session, taking place at 1.30pm tomorrow (Tuesday, November 6) in the Press Conference Theatre at ME580. Open to all attendees.
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