BRAZIL: THE ELECTION GAMBLE


As Brazil heads towards a tightly contested presidential election, gambling has become a political flashpoint. With evangelical opposition mounting, the Lula government is tightening regulation, accelerating enforcement and facing growing pressure over the future of the country's betting market.


Brazil heads toward an October 4, 2026 first round, with a likely October 25 runoff, in an increasingly competitive race as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth, non consecutive term at age 80. Te Workers’ Party (PT) has governed for 16 of the past 23 years - 11 under Lula - but its dominance has been under pressure since the 2018 defeat to Jair Bolsonaro, the far right populist who turned Brazil’s conservative bloc into a mass movement. Over the past year Lula’s position has weakened. His


approval ratings have turned net negative, and polling from major institutes shows his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro - now the right’s standard bearer - has shrunk to within the margin of error, with some runoff scenarios giving Bolsonaro a narrow edge. Lula has tried to project vigour, even sharing workout videos on social media, but age remains a central concern: he would be 85 by the end of a new term. Economically, the picture is mixed. Brazil’s economy grew 1.1


per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and is forecast to expand by about 2.3 per cent for the year, with the country expected to regain its position as the world’s 10th largest economy. Yet growth feels uneven on the ground, propped up by stimulus and a tight labour market but constrained by inflation and external shocks. Food prices, particularly staples, have surged, eroding purchasing power for Lula’s lower income base, while wages are widely seen as lagging behind the cost of living. Public safety further weighs on Lula’s popularity. Crime and


violence consistently top voter concerns, and a majority favours tough, militarised policing - allowing conservative opponents to frame Lula’s emphasis on human rights and due process as “soft on crime.” At the same time young voters are now more likely to disapprove than approve of his government, evangelicals


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remain firmly conservative, and more workers in agriculture and the gig economy are drawn to market friendly, right leaning messages. Legislative defeats and renewed corruption stories reinforce a perception of governmental weakness, as Congress blocks key initiatives and investigations keep corruption narratives alive. Regionally, Brazil’s election is unfolding against a broader


rightward turn in Latin America as well. Conservative and right wing movements - from populists such as Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele to more traditional conservatives elsewhere - now shape politics in much of the region. In this climate, Lula’s bid is no longer buoyed by a wider left of centre tide but instead faces a consolidated, confident right, making the 2026 contest genuinely open.


GAMBLING AND FAITH In Brazil, the rapid growth of Pentecostal and evangelical Christianity—particularly through groups like the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God (IURD) - has profoundly reshaped religious and political culture, with evangelicals now accounting for more than a quarter of the electorate. Bolsonaro’s 2018 campaign aggressively tapped this


demographic, blending biblical themes with politics under the slogan “Brazil above all, God above everyone,” a concise expression of evangelical nationalism. In response, Lula’s administration and the Workers’ Party


are mounting a faith focused campaign to rebuild ties with evangelicals, framing social programs (tax relief, gas subsidies, welfare programmes, housing) as acts of justice and solidarity and recasting Lula’s life story as a testimony of perseverance and service. Te strategy relies on religious media appearances, small


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