NEXTPredict NYC Pierre Lindh on prediction markets’ next frontier


money on that investment. Obviously, we're hoping that we don't win the trade - because if we do, something has gone seriously wrong with travel into New York - but that's the purpose of the hedge.


How did the arrangement with Kalshi and Susquehanna actually work? Was there already a market you could use? Tis was a learning experience for us as well. Kalshi has an


institutional team and we signed up as an institutional customer. We went to Kalshi and said that we wanted to hedge our conference, with Susquehanna taking the other side of the trade. We discussed what the appropriate trigger should be. We initially considered disruption across the airports, but ultimately decided we could focus on JFK because if you have that level of disruption there, it's reasonable to expect wider disruption as well. Once we'd agreed the parameters, Kalshi's team created the market


specifically for us. Tey had to establish exactly how the contract would work and what would trigger it. Tere are also provisions designed to prevent abuse. Certain types of disruption, such as incidents involving drones or bomb threats, don't trigger the contract. Interestingly, when the market was published, somebody in the


media picked it up and suddenly there was a story about Kalshi allowing people to gamble on flight cancellations. What wasn't understood was the negotiation and corporate hedging use case behind it. Tis particular market is only available to institutional customers. General retail customers can't trade it, partly because it's obviously a sensitive market.


Having now gone through the process, what have you learned about the practicality of prediction markets as a corporate risk-management tool?


One thing I've learned is that Kalshi is extremely hungry for this type


of business. Tey put the time and effort into creating a professional contract in a very short period. Tat told me something about the direction in which the company wants to move. Kalshi wants prediction markets to be seen as providing these types of hedging opportunities. I also learned how easily something like hedging a conference can be misconstrued when it is taken out of context. Ten there's Susquehanna's perspective as a market maker and the way they see prediction markets potentially competing with the insurance industry in future.


Another important point is simply how easy the process was. We


could have gone to an insurance company and asked for a very specific policy covering flight cancellations. Tey might say they don't insure


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