INSIGHT ADDICTION AND GAMBLING
Humans (and of course all other animals) are masters of pattern recognition. We only process bits and pieces of our sensory inputs and interpret the rest based on past experience. We hear a noise approaching around the corner and believe it’s a car. We walk down the stairs in our house and know how many steps there are.
For every effect there is a cause. Nothing in the physical world is happening randomly. What would be the point if it were? Tat’s why quantum physics is so puzzling and even the brightest of us must admit that we do not fully understand its mechanisms. How can something be in two places at the same time?
Astrology is a perfect example of our compulsion for pattern recognition. In ancient times people connected random bright dots in the night sky to familiar looking shapes. Lions, bulls and many more… Tey could not leave the stars be, they had to have a meaning!
But how does this apply to games of chance? Gambling machines don’t choose winners and losers, the outcomes are determined randomly. Tere are no reasons for winning or losing. Tis is fundamentally different from how our brains work!
Te gambling industry utilises this vulnerability. Roulette machines in casinos often display the last number of outcomes and gamblers believe that after a number of black rounds, red must be more likely. Psychologists call this magical thinking, or cognitive distortions. Some people are more vulnerable to it than others and there are various psychological and neurological reasons. Nobody really understands fully how somebody can become a problem gambler. We know for example that problem gambling is often piggybacking on other addictions.
Researchers speak of structural characteristics when they describe a game of chance’s components. Research into the effects of structural characteristics started in the early 90s when internet gambling was evolving for the first time, and the first internet casinos in Europe launched. Today every imaginable game can be played on the internet, even with real people spinning the roulette wheel or dealing Black Jack cards.
Te following structural characteristics have emerged from the current body of research:
1. Event frequency: Te event frequency is the number of seconds between two consecutive wagers. Te smaller the event frequency the more frequent a game is being played.
2. Return to player (RTP): Te RTP is the percentage of the amount wagered paid back to players as winnings. Te RTP is between 0 and 1. A higher value indicates that the game pays back out more to players.
3. Hit frequency: Te hit frequency is the ratio between the aggregate number of wagers made divided by the aggregate number of wins obtained by all players. A lower quotient
P36 WIRE / PULSE / INSIGHT / REPORTS
Dr Michael Auer Director and Head of Development, Neccton
deviation win is the variation in amount of money won across all winnings for a particular game.
Te structural characteristics can be determined by game developers and can be controlled by operators or regulation. Te latter often dictates a certain minimum event frequency, a maximum bet per game or a maximum play duration.
Up to now there is very limited research into the impact of structural characteristics on potential problem gambling. Most research, also the ones which led to the aforementioned list, is based on panels. In these studies, gamblers are asked what they believe gets them hooked!
“Only 7.7 per cent of gamblers session length could be explained by the eight
structural characteristics. This means that 92.3 per cent of behaviour is caused by other
factors. One such factor was a particularly high win in a session. The study found that players who won a larger amount tended to play much longer than players who did not have such a winning experience. They were literally chasing after another win.”
However, in recent years researchers have gained access to actual player data from online gambling operators which allows them to test laboratory findings in real-world settings. Needless to say, the results are regularly disillusioning. Gamblers who have lost thousands often behave differently to University students who gamble for tokens in a lab.
Only two studies investigated structural characteristics in a real-world setting. A recent study with players from a UK-based online casino analysed more than one billion game rounds. In this study, researchers wanted to know which games led to particularly long sessions. Each game was coded with respect to Event frequency, RTP and all the other metrics.
Te study came to a chilling conclusion. Only 7.7 per cent of gamblers session length could be explained by the eight structural characteristics. Tis means that 92.3 per cent of behaviour is caused by other factors. One such factor was a particularly high win in a session. Te study found that players who won a larger amount tended to play much longer than players who did not have such a winning experience. Tey were literally chasing after another win.
represents more frequent wins per wagers in a game (i.e., fewer wagers needed to obtain a win of any size).
4. Continuity: Te continuity is the average session duration in minutes. Te higher the continuity, the longer the players gamble on average on a particular game.
5. Average bet: Te average bet is the mean average amount wagered across all wagers for a particular game.
6. Standard deviation bet: Te standard deviation bet is the variation in amount of money bet across all wagers for a particular game.
7. Average win: Te average win is the mean average amount won across all winnings for a particular game.
8. Standard deviation win: Te standard
Event Frequency turned out to be the most important metric among the eight structural characteristics. Tis is in line with previous research, and it simply means that fast games lead to longer sessions and ultimately higher losses. But most slots are very similar with respect to Event Frequency and there must be other mechanisms in play.
How do slots stand out these days? It is mostly the theme, the music, graphics and the marketing. Some slots are regionally so popular that operators cannot be successful without them. Generations of gamblers have played them. Researchers believe that these features are at least as important as the structural characteristics when it comes to problem gambling.
But maybe there is no silver bullet, no single solution; maybe each player is attracted to another game just like only one key fits into a lock. As we are seeing elsewhere, individualisation seems to be the future of game development.
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