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ManageMent www.us- tech.com


Is AI a Looming Menace to Today’s Employment?


By Eric Winkler, Founder and Chairman, Ryder Industries A


s our local grocery clerk is sup- planted by a self-checkout ma- chine and cars gain the ability


to drive themselves, people are grow- ing concerned. Are we being re- placed? We see stories like this everywhere: artificial intelligence is going to replace everybody’s job, the economy is on its way to becoming completely robotized and people are going to slump into well-fed and well- cared-for despondency with no sense of purpose to their lives. In the end, they say, computers and robots will take over and the human race will be finished. We know that bad news sells


better than good news and any posi- tive points in a story are often mini- mized, leaving the reader with a bleak, distorted view. Evolutionary psychologists tell us that this fits in- to the behavioral pattern needed for human survival. While dangers re- quire urgent attention, good news can take its time. If we are to look at what is happening to human society, it is useful to take some key insights from the past. If you were to inform a person


from 700 years ago that in the future only two percent of the population will need to farm the land to provide for the others, they would be horri- fied. “Massive unemployment!” they might say. “That’s terrible! How will the rest earn their living?” You would be hard-pressed to


explain how those non-farmers have come to live comfortable, healthy lives in today’s economy, how they make things for each other, entertain each other, care for each other’s health, and teach the next genera- tion’s children. All of this has come about without destroying the old cus- toms and structures by gradual evo- lution. Similarly, we can be confident that innovation will open new possi- bilities and that society will develop new ways of improving people’s lives. Within our own lifetimes, we


have seen renewable energy evolve from a derided concept to a substan- tial, growing part of the economy. We have seen a new regulatory and com- pliance industry founded to ensure that mighty financiers serve society. A generation ago, this was a pipe dream. When people are perceptive and


creative, they observe the opportuni- ties around them and find ways to put them to use. From new opportu- nities spring new social needs, and from these, spring new jobs. Put time to work and society will change radi- cally. The last 700 years are a case in point — the number, variety and quality of our jobs and our lives has increased tremendously in ways that we could not have imagined.


The State of Robotics Today, some fear that elected


governments will gradually be re- placed by all-seeing, all-knowing


computers, transcending human lim- itations. Not so long ago, a world chess champion was confident a com- puter could never defeat him or any human. He was mistaken. Today chess — tomorrow the world? Yet, computers have not come to


rule the world. For one, the world is far more complex than a chess match. Also, AI is a cool term, but a slick misconception. Robots only know what we put in them. There is no radical extrapolation going on, so we find the AI moniker sliding over to the latest concept on the tech hori- zon, bubbling slightly out of our reach. This lends to the perception that robots are always just a little bit smarter than us. So, while AI is in- deed advancing, it remains wildly overblown in the media. Robots are no more than electro-


mechanical tools equipped with sen- sors and a microprocessor. They can only perform a set of tasks for which they have been programmed. They are justified to the extent that they help society to be safer and more produc- tive. They improve the productivity of many people, create opportunities for new jobs and extinguish a certain number of low-productivity jobs. In essence, robots are simply another form of social change. A wise society will respond by


accepting that change brings with it a degree of social restructuring and to invest its resources accordingly in


making that change productive, smooth and dignified for the individ- uals involved. Since technology is constantly


bringing about productivity improve- ments, allowing each person to achieve more in an hour’s work, will this not reduce the demand for work? Will it lead us to a nirvana-like state where we work only a few hours each week and spend the rest of our time making music and socializing? Or will it lead us to a desperate society in which a rich elite is frantically busy, while the rest of us are unemployed and survive on state handouts? Actually, neither is likely, as


both models overlook human creativ- ity and ambition, whether it is for a better car, a nicer kitchen, a smarter suit, or a medal of recognition. Government can help by en-


couraging job-creation and getting new employers into more automated communities, by improving infra- structure and providing the means for workers to learn new skills for new jobs. As we’ve seen happen in the


past, good change lies ahead and it will improve our lives in the long term. It will eliminate some jobs, while creating others and wise com- munities will help with the transi- tion and uphold people’s basic digni- ty, so that when robots take over, they only take over what is tedious. Contact: Ryder Industries, Ltd.,


1803 Chinachem Johnston Plaza, 178 Johnston Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong % 852-2341-8211 fax: 852-2797-9027 Web: www.ryderems.com r


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December, 2019


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