NPD Column
What’s in store through 2014?
The NPD Group’s Rory Partis looks ahead and considers what factors will influence 2014’s end-of-year performance.
A
t the time of writing this article we have come through the early part of the year. At NPD we spend a lot of time reflecting on what happened in the year just gone and it’s always
a very interesting time. We recorded a full year 2013 figure of -1% in value terms. This figure, on refection, has been deemed a stable performance for the British toy market and has reinforced the optimism for the year ahead. So it is inevitable that thoughts turn to asking what 2014 holds. Before we consider 2014 it’s always worth taking stock on what shone in 2013 and what, perhaps, could have gone a little better. On the downside we saw a definite negative trend in 2013 for the low price point ‘pocket money’ sector. In fact, looking at the data shows that it is the ‘non-occasion’ area that is bringing the market down, suggesting that it is this impulse area that is struggling the most. The under £5 price point represented around 12% of total sales in 2013 but was £26m in value less than the year before. We also saw less impact from the ‘big’ licences in 2013, and looking at specific ones and grouping them into themes we have actually seen a decline across all major licensed areas. Film licences saw a collective decline and even the digital licences saw a dip in value over 2013. On the positive side, we saw another strong
December in the UK, although it does look like shoppers left it late again with week 52 up massively on 2012’s. In terms of category growth, Games had a great year, growing at +5% and with strong performances from a number of the leading manufacturers. We saw success in Boys with Teenage Mutuant Ninja Turtles and Chima doing well, and in Girls, Doc McStuffins and Peppa Pig have both had strong comeback years. There was also some good sales seen from higher price point items around Christmas which contributed to the strong December sales; items such as Furby Boom and Teksta proved particularly popular as Christmas presents.
16 Toyworld
Supercategory Sales Value (£m) – YTD January 2014 v 13
Yr/Yr
10 9
1 6 11 7 4 8
5 3
Infant/Preschool Toys Dolls
Building Sets
Outdoor & Sports Toys Games/Puzzles All Other Toys Vehicles
Action Fig/Acc&Act Role Ply Arts & Crafts Plush
45 Youth Electronics 2.8 4.1 4.6 4.9
4.4 4.5
9.5 10.1 7.8 8.6 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.2 5.6
YTD 2013 YTD 2014
19.6 21.6 11.8 12.9
11.1 11.2
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Source: NPD EPoS Retail Tracking
1
The year ahead Looking to 2014, there are quite a few exciting products out there that were on show at the various toy fairs and a fair amount of excitement surrounding them. Feeding back into the point about big film licences last year, it looks like 2014 could be a bumper year for films which should have a big impact on toys; we have The Lego Movie, Transformers 4, The Amazing Spiderman 2 and Turtles in 2014 to name but a few. These boys-focused films should have a big effect on Action Figures which has had a tough time in recent years, showing a -5% decrease in 2013 against 2012. NPD has recently forecast that Action Figures could deliver double digit growth in 2014, so let’s keep our fingers crossed. It’s also worth having a quick look at January data for 2014, which showed a very healthy +8% growth in both value and units for the
first month of the year. We actually saw growth in every single super catgeory for January, with Youth Electronics showing a +45% increase and Infant/Pre-school and Games/Puzzles also showing double digit growth. The large increase in Youth electronics is particularly impressive, with some of the recent hot products such as Furby, Robofish, kids’ tablets and the relaunched Tamagotchi sitting in this category. Looking at these results it is the unit growth that is the most pleasing aspect, because across Europe volume was down in 2013; if we want a growing market it’s important to sell more packs. In summary, 2014 has started well, and with the major film releases and also the small matter of the World Cup in the Summer, we look set for a solid year. The January NPD figures are hopefully just the start of things to come.
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