Table 3. The indus- trial silica sand mar- ket, which histori- cally has remained around 30 million tons per year, nearly doubled by 2013.
工业用硅砂市场历 史上保持每年3000 万吨的需求量，到 2013年这一数字已 翻番。
spike in disparate locations when particular wells require large amounts of sand.
Forecasting Sand’s Future Barring significant economic unrest, the supply and
pricing of metalcasting sand should remain fairly stable in the next few years. Tat being said, the possibility for a crisis in the industry’s sand supply is not zero, though many would argue it is remote. Te biggest threat would be a massive surge in demand for fracking sands, which, considering the growth in overall capacity in recent years, remains unlikely. Predictably, the further one looks ahead, the more
uncertain the market appears. Many analysts expect natural gas and oil prices to increase sharply near the end of the decade, making sand for fracking a more valuable com- modity. If the price difference between fracking sand and metalcasting sand becomes sizeable enough, suppliers may migrate toward the more lucrative market. Since the advent of the fracking boom, the relation-
ships between metalcasters and sand suppliers have grown a bit closer. Metalcasters can avoid problems in their sand supply by getting to know their suppliers. Tat way, they get a sense of the supplier’s dedication to the metalcast- ing market and whether it will be tempted by the fracking industry if prices reach a certain point. Metalcasting will be around for a long time—as long
as there is a need for manufacturing. Many sand suppliers understand it is a stable market that represents a decent volume of material. Te number of customers for the mate- rial is healthy, so a supplier can diversify its customer base by dealing with the metalcasting industry. ■
未来用砂趋势的预测
在未来几年内，除重大不稳定经济因素影响外，铸造 行业用砂的供应和价格可以保持相对稳定。也就是说， 尽管很多人认为出现的可能性很小，但铸造行业的用砂 供给危机并不是完全不存在的。最大的威胁将来自于水 力压裂行业用砂的需求激增，但是考虑到近年来砂子总 产量的增长，这个威胁很小。
可以预测的是，看的越远，市场的不确定性越大。很 多分析者认为，到2020年之前，天然气和石油价格将大 幅提高，从而将推高水力压裂用砂的价格。如果水力压 裂用砂和铸造用砂的价格差异非常大，供砂企业将会转 向利润更大的市场。
随着水力压裂市场强劲需求的到来，铸造企业和供砂 企业之间的关系变得更加紧密。铸造企业通过与他们的 供应商建立联系，从而避免了供砂难的问题。因此，即 使是受到水力压裂市场价格优势的吸引，他们也能获得 供应商对于铸造行业的坚定支持，为铸造行业的发展做 出了贡献。
只要有制造业的需求，铸造业将会长期存在下去。 很多供砂企业认识到铸造业是一个稳定的市场，代表了 相当一部分材料的需求。而且，这些客户的数量是可观 的，因此，供应商可以在与铸造行业打交道的过程中使 客户群多样化。■
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FOUNDRY-PLANET.COM | MODERN CASTING | CHINA FOUNDRY ASSOCIATION December 2014
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