Chapter 2: State of the Environment and Policy Response
Figure 2.6.5: West Asia – precipitation, medium (top) and high (bottom) climate change scenarios for 2081–2100, showing changes in precipitation compared to observed amounts in 1986–2005
Fisheries and tourism may also be affected by changes in marine habitats and species. A diverse array of marine species has adapted to the extreme conditions found in the ROPME Sea Area, able to survive at temperatures that would be lethal to populations elsewhere. These organisms, however, are living at the upper limits of their thermal tolerance and increased temperatures associated with climate change are likely to push many of them beyond this threshold, resulting in widespread mortality (Tolba and Saab 2009). For example, in 1996 a thermal anomaly resulted in sea surface temperatures increasing by 2 °C above the normal summer maxima, and resulted in widespread and substantial mortality, above 90 per cent, of corals across the entire southern basin of the ROPME Sea Area (excluding the Gulf of Oman). Given that this increase matches the projection of sea surface temperature rise by the end of the century, it is likely that temperature changes will have significant repercussions for the many marine species already living at their thermal tolerance limit.
Source: UNESCWA 2015
Sea level rise associated with climate change will impact parts of West Asia’s coastal lands, mostly in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (UNEP 2013) (Figure 2.6.6). Climate change scenarios that take into account increased human activities in coastal areas call for the adaption of coastal management regulations and the use of remote sensing technologies to monitor changes in coastal areas.
Terrestrial and marine ecosystems are highly specialised to withstand the region’s climate conditions and are therefore highly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the region. Ecosystems are already under stress from the encroachment of human infrastructure and activities that accompany rapid growth and economic development. Even small long-term variations in atmospheric temperature, precipitation and the physical and chemical conditions of the ROPME Sea Area could adversely affect ecosystems.
The fishing industry provides more than USD500 million in goods and services to national economies in the region, in addition to employment for tens of thousands of individuals directly and indirectly supporting fishing activities. It is the largest natural resource sector outside oil and gas. Future climate change is likely to have substantial direct and indirect effects on these fisheries. High temperatures in Arabian waters have been shown to result in fish that are smaller, mature more quickly and die younger than individuals living in more benign environments in the region (Tolba and Saab 2009).
Increases in sea surface temperatures, therefore, have the potential to reduce the overall fish biomass available for exploitation. In addition, because smaller fish produce exponentially fewer eggs, climate change may reduce the ability of fish populations to replace individuals that have been harvested (Tolba and Saab 2009).
Climate change is also likely to affect fisheries indirectly through the loss of critical habitat. Seagrass meadows and coral reefs represent important nursery and/or foraging habitats for a variety of commercially important fish species,
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