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Chapter 3: Outlooks and Emerging Issues


Table 3.2.2: Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity in West Asian countries in 1961 and 2008 Country


Ecological Footprint [gha per capita]


Bahrain Iraq


Jordan Kuwait


Lebanon Oman OPT


Qatar


Saudi Arabia Syria UAE


Yemen West-Asia


1961 5.4 0.9 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.1 NA 7.8 0.8 1.2 NA 1.2 1.1


Source: Compiled by the authors based on data in AFED 2012


contributing 30 per cent of GDP and employing more than 40 per cent of the workforce (UNESCWA 2002), although there are also some extractive industries in countries such as Jordan and Syria.


3.3 Megatrends and teleconnections


Megatrends reflect the impact of current regional trends and their interplay in the West Asia countries’ reality. They include conflict and refugee exodus, the fluctuation of oil prices and the move to use technology and data sharing. Megatrends provide a description of the status of current trends and how these factors may shape the future.


3.3.1 Conflict and refugee exodus


The Arab Spring felt in West Asia and the Arab region has developed into full-scale violent conflicts in Iraq and Syria, leading to a massive exodus of millions of refugees, first to neighbouring countries and more recently to Europe by illegal and dangerous routes. The thrust of this refugee crisis is not only testing Europe’s religious and ethnic tolerance and its human rights tradition, but, as some European countries start to raise border controls, is also threatening the European Union’s open-border policy and potentially its very integrity. The ramifications of the current upheaval in West Asia reach across continents and oceans and cannot therefore be isolated from the rest of the world.


2008 6.6 1.4 2.1 9.7 2.8 5.7 0.5


11.7 4.0 1.5 8.9 0.9 2.8


1961 4.0 0.8 1.0 3.0 0.5 9.5 NA


53.5 2.5 1.3 NA 2.5 1.8


Biocapacity [gha per capita]


2008 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 2.2 0.1 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5


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