GEO-6 Regional Asssement for West Asia


The areas showing a higher increase are in the Saharan area of North Africa and central areas of the Arabian Peninsula (Figure 2.6.3) (Pal and Eltahir 2015).


For extreme temperature indices, projections show increasing trends in hot summer days – the annual number of days when the maximum temperature (Tmax) is greater than 35°C – by the end of the century throughout the entire Arab region (Figure 2.6.4).


Projections for 2081–2100 show that precipitation will exhibit larger variability than temperature (Figure 2.6.5). In general, there is a reduction in average monthly precipitation, particularly for the upper Euphrates and Tigris river catchment.


Predictions of dry-bulb maximum temperatures and wet-bulb maximum temperatures in southwest Asia according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios (Figure 1.2.9) suggest that the region should push global mitigation efforts to achieve the RCP 4.5 scenario and avoid the business-as-usual scenario that will most likely lead to exceeding the survival threshold around the ROPME Sea Area and affect its human habitability.


Figure 2.6.3: West Asia – temperature (ºC), medium (top) and high (bottom) climate change scenarios for 2081–2100, showing additional ºC compared to observed temperatures, 1986–2005


Vulnerability to climate change impacts


There is a need to improve the understanding of climate change in the region, as well as the vulnerability of society, the economy and the environment to its impacts. Climate change will potentially affect coastal areas due to sea level rise, and lead to increased erosion and accretion due to changes in currents and storm surges. Impacts on public health may also be felt, with changes in the incidence of respiratory disease and heat stroke, and the potential introduction of vector- borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever.


The availability of freshwater could also be affected, although the region is already facing high levels of freshwater scarcity. The expectation is that reliance on desalination of seawater will increase as conventional sources become further depleted. Food security could continue to be an issue of concern, with countries relying on regions that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.


Figure 2.6.4: West Asia – temperature (35 ºC), medium (top) and high (bottom) climate change scenarios for 2081–2100, showing annual additional number of days above 35 ºC, compared to observed numbers in 1986–2005


Source: UNESCWA 2015b Source: UNESCWA 2015 86


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