Chapter 3: Outlooks and Emerging Issues
Table 3.6.1: The Oryx Scenario matrix Issue
Trend Economic Development Education and environment Conflicts and displacement
Sustaining natural capital Water Scarcity
Politics and environment
Rationale
Development ambitions of West Asian countries no longer contradict environmental sustainability. The region’s mitigation strategies make it more dependent on renewable energy sources in its path towards greener economies for its countries.
Well educated and environmentally aware youth lead West Asian countries. Environmental issues are national priorities for the region’s governments and rank high on their agendas.
The region is politically stable where regional cooperation addresses extremism effectively improving peace and security. Displacement driven by climate change impacts is well managed through adaptation strategies that include relocation plans. Transboundary resources are managed effectively.
Awareness of the value of ecosystem services drives consumption patterns. Efficiently –enforced environmental legislations and mitigation policies pave the way for sustainable production methods in West Asia.
Population control policies increases the per person share of water for the citizens of West Asian countries. IWRM and water footprint considerations are making water use more efficient. Climate change exacerbated water scarcity is addressed by the agricultural adaptation of the region’s countries.
West Asian countries are rapidly climbing the environmental democracy ranking as political parties integrating environment and sustainability into their mandates and the civil society is more involved in monitoring environmental performance.
in human resources and capacity building are among the fundamental elements of economic diversification and development, followed by creativity in sustainable use of renewable resources while preserving ecosystem goods and services. This might also be done by diversifying their economies through regional and international cooperation. Investments in manufacturing, trade, commerce and tourism have become major economic avenues with increasing attention being paid to environmental issues.
• Phasing out of an economy based on oil and other minerals ushers countries into a wide new domain, leaping out of the old economic practices developed in the early 1950s into a more spacious and vibrant economy fed by innovation and creativity and overarched by sustainability.
• In this scenario, countries seek new models based
on the green economy, taking advantage of their natural capital (Black et al. 2011). The thrust towards a green economy entails the creation of a new class of entrepreneurs, mainly young citizens who run small- and medium-sized businesses. This initiative also moves the economy towards the private sector, widening its contribution in the national economy as well as ensuring financial stability and developing the skills of young businessmen. Many of the young entrepreneurs have turned to resource recovery from waste, a multiple- benefit business. On the one hand, waste management practices have improved in areas where these industries are located. On the other, the profit margin is promising enough to attract more young entrepreneurs to the business (Figure 3.6.1).
• The Oryx Scenario coincides with transition to green economy in terms of environmental change. This implies
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