GEO-6 Regional Asssement for West Asia
3.6.1 Scenario milieu
The Oryx scenario describes a range of paths that countries in West Asia could follow in their efforts to leap to a better future in the next 25 years. Most of these countries have experienced stormy times in the last few years, which has created an atmosphere of uncertainty and doubt. The new regional priority is to reorient, recover and discover new ways of facing emerging changes and challenges.
Countries are striving to mainstream sustainability in their policies and practices. Developed countries were the earliest countries to contextualise, incorporate and apply these concepts; however, they progressed by trial and error and developed mechanisms to correct for errors. The experience they gained in this respect has superseded that of many other countries and it might be replicated by developing nations, but it requires commitment to change, conviction to modify working rules, and the resources to support different pathways. It involves leapfrogging to environmental, social and economic sustainability.
3.6.2 Scenario assumptions
The Oryx Scenario is a visionary look at the future of the West Asia region, drawing an optimistic picture of the pathways to environmental sustainability as depicted in Table 3.6.1.
The scenario assumes that the region will move towards a green economy. Eco-tourism will be the prevailing model of the tourist industry, environmental sustainability will be a core subject in the educational curriculum and regional cooperation will be a national priority issue leading to peace and security. Cross-regional cooperation will play a major role in the management of transboundary environmental issues with sustainable consumption and production as the absolute norm. Increased per-person water availability will be achieved through the successful implementation of integrated water resource management plans and by increased cooperation in the management of transboundary water resources. Environmental matters will be integral to national and regional policies and high on the political agenda of West Asian countries, leading to improved environmental
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democracy and governance systems. The assumptions are hypothetical and give the reader an imagination of a future outlook that can be manifested with will power. The Oryx Scenario proposes selective outcomes:
• That regional cooperation will prevail, leading to economic stability and increased security and human well-being. It also assumes that young citizens will be the major driving force as entrepreneurs and architects of the future.
• That the region will apply modern desalinization technologies and use integrated water resource management efficiently.
• That countries of the region will apply adaptation and mitigation measures and implement the internationally agreed treaties to manage the impact of climate change, including displacement and sea level rise.
3.6.3 The Oryx scenario unfolds
With economics as the backbone of any country, sustainability is the propeller driving the economy and economics. With countries economically dependent on natural resources and stakeholders aware of the impacts of resource overuse on economies, society and the environment, there has been a shift towards sustainable development paradigms.
Oil-rich West Asian countries, mainly the GCC countries and Iraq, have been using their endowment of hydrocarbons as the main vehicle to build their economic prosperity. However, with the post-oil paradigm looming and slumping revenues from oil, as well as the political manipulation of oil supply and demand, these countries should move towards other avenues on which to base their economies, such as ecotourism, agriculture and fishing.
West Asian countries with limited or no oil resources are in a position to seek sustainable horizons that might expand their economies to meet the increasing demands of growing populations. Institutional development and investment
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