Chapter 3: Outlooks and Emerging Issues
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3.1 Introduction
s with other DPSIR assessments, this Outlooks chapter offers a vision of a future under a set of policy measures designed to achieve sustainable
development. The vision has been arrived at by using the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) as guidelines for achieving national and regional goals. It analyses the policy pathways that could lead to achieve SDG targets either in terms of their impacts on existing policies or how they enable particular scenarios to unfold. It provides the basis for how the West Asia region might look after successful implementation of measures to attain the SDG milestones. The vision presented here is not a prediction of how the future will evolve but rather an optimistic view of what it could be. The section also explores the challenges of implementing global environmental pathways, and provides insights into the scope of the course of action that West Asian governments could take.
Sections 3.2 to 3.4 identify the major drivers behind the changes that are currently underway, including the impact of population growth rates as well as current economic growth. An exploration of global megatrends and teleconnections with other regions addresses regional and local conflicts, fluctuations in oil supply and demand, and how the use of technology could shape the future. Current emerging environmental issues and how they might play a role in determining the environmental agenda of the region are also investigated.
Section 3.5 explores sustainability challenges in the context of the environmental dimension of the SDGs, highlighting those identified by the West Asia region as pertinent to their own conditions and requirements, and matching them to the five broad environmental themes addressed in this report.
Section 3.6 introduces the Oryx Scenario, an optimistic vision of the future for the next 25 years based on the goals of regional sustainability. The Oryx Scenario assumes fulfilment of core West Asia priorities, namely: improving the level of peace and security; reducing current trends in water scarcity,and coping with the impacts of climate change.
Credit: Shutterstock/ Ozphotoguy
Section 3.7 returns to a vision of the future, 40 years (10 years after the adoption of SDGs), arranging the major themes and requirements of sustainability in supporting the SDGs.
3.2 Current regional drivers of change
The regional drivers can be seen as the cause of environmental challenges and they can also be seen as possible tools for change. The first identified drivers are population growth rates and urban development and the next driver of change is economic growth and the way it can help make the transition to cleaner living.
3.2.1 Population and urban growth
In pre-modern times the bulk of West Asia’s population was concentrated in the fertile areas of Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The rest of the region supported thinly distributed populations, mostly engaged in rain-fed agriculture, fishing and pastoralism. Much of the habitat was not touched by human development.
The situation changed considerably following independence, the discovery of oil, and rising wealth and education. These changes have brought about a phenomenal growth in population and living standards. West Asia’s population is projected to continue to grow in the next few decades, albeit at increasingly lower rates. It is expected to increase from just over 150 million (2.1 per cent of global population) in 2015 to about 205 million (2.4 per cent of global population) in 2030 (Figure 3.2.1) (UNDESA 2015a). A large proportion of the population, 52 per cent, is under the age of 18. With the notable exception of Yemen and to a lesser extent Syria, West Asia’s population is also highly urbanized. These high rates of population growth and urbanization, coupled with current consumption patterns, compound the pressures on the region’s limited land and water resources (UNEP 2010b).
Due to its aridity and water scarcity, given the state of technology, the region has already surpassed its natural capacity to meet its own food and water demand; the increasing gap between the region’s ecological footprint
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