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Those seabird species with a large sample size of flying birds (>100) for which there can be greater confidence in the calculated site based percentage at PCH are:
• Fulmar; • Gannet; • Kittiwake; and • Great black-backed gull.
30.
For the remaining seabird species for which collision risk modelling will be carried out it is proposed to use the generic flight height information determined from the BTO contacted SOSS-02 project.
3.1.7 Update to Baseline Information Analysis: Migration Modelling 31.
The paper presented to the OETG Mtg 2 provided in Section 5.2 a summary of the migration modelling approach applied by APEM with further detail in Appendix 4.
32. Appendix 6 provides the results of the screening exercise to identify which migrant bird species associated with SPAs in the United Kingdom will be run through the model.
33. Appendix 7 provides the results of the estimation of the numbers of the screened in migrant species that will pass through the proposed East Anglia THREE and hence be at risk of collision.
34. Quantification of the risk of collision is a subsequent step to be carried out using the Band collision risk model. The results of this modelling will be reported in the PEI Report.
3.1.8 Update to Baseline Information Analysis: Collision Risk Modelling 35.
• Band CRM Options 1 with site-specific PCH; • Band Option 1 with generic PCH from SOSS-02; and • Band Option 3.
36.
Each of the three options is presented with outputs derived from the application of an avoidance rate of 98%, 99% and 99.5%. Predictions are presented both as annual totals and monthly. The worst case scenario applied for this modelling has been
Evidence Plan Ornithology March 2014
East Anglia THREE & FOUR Page 8
The outputs from the collision risk modelling of seabirds are presented in Appendix 8. Modelling was carried out using: