Sobering first quarterLooking forward—following a difficult 1H’09
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Looking forward—
following a difficult 1H'09
The first half of 2009 was difficult—to and the Taiwan-listed ODM companies 2009.—Strategy Analytics
say the least! Electronic equipment sales reflected the beginnings of an upturn in • Worldwide auto sales will decline 12%
dropped 12% in 2Q’09 vs. 2Q’08 following their second quarter results (Chart 8). in 2009, increase in 2010 and top 73
a 13% decline in the first quarter (Chart Based upon 3/12 growth values for million units in 2014.—iSuppli
1). This current “recession” is reminiscent the global electronic food chain (Chart 9) • Global demand for automotive
of 2001/2002 (Chart 2), except fortunately we hit the low point in Q1 and 3/12s are electronic systems will fall by 15% to
inventories are much better controlled now now improving. Remember that actual $118bn in 2009.—Strategy Analytics
(Chart 3). year-on-year growth won’t resume until • Global consumer-electronics equip-
The second quarter contraction 3/12 values exceed 1.0, but we are headed ment revenue grew 4.2% Q/Q to US
pervaded the entire global electronics food in the right direction. SE Asia (with its $71.1 billion in Q2.—iSuppli
chain (Chart 4) with only military and dominant market share) is leading the • Flat panel display sales revenues may
medical electronics in positive territory and recovery (Charts 10 & 11), but eventually N. rise only 1% from 2008 to 2016;
the Asian-based ODMs (original design America, Europe and Japan will follow. OLED shipments for TVs to increase
manufacturers) leading the early recovery. at a 140% CAGR from 2008-2016.—
Large EMS companies (Charts 5 & 6) end markets DisplaySearch
saw a 22% Q2’09/Q2’08 revenue decline • Worldwide PC shipments declined 5% • Global LCD TV shipments will grow
with a 28% drop in Q3 (based upon the y/y to 68.1 million units in 2Q’09.— 21% y/y to 127 million units in 2009
combined “guidance” of those companies Gartner and another 16.5% y/y to 148 million
that gave a forward outlook). Note that • Mini-Note (Netbook) shipments will units in 2010.—DisplaySearch
there has been sequential growth in 2009 double Y/Y to more than 30M units in • Global personal navigation device
but revenues are off quarter-on-quarter vs. 2009.—DisplaySearch market will decline 12% to 35.11 mil-
2008. Medium sized EMS companies (as • Internet population will reach 2.2 lion units in 2009 as a result of GPS
a group) experienced an even larger 25% billion people by 2013. 43% of the enabled phones becoming popular
decline in Q2’09 revenues. These smaller internet population will be be in Asia.— worldwide.—MIC
companies typically do not provide next- Forrester Research • U.S. airplane shipments fell 46% y/y
quarter guidance. • Worldwide GPS smartphone ship- in 1H’09 to 1,036 planes.—General
SE Asia is leading the global recovery ments will reach 77 million units in Aviation Manufacturers Association
20090821 20090821
Electronic Equipment Suppliers Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 61 Public Companies Composite of 61 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory Quarterly Revenue Growth
$ Billion
% Growth (quarter vs same quarter in prior year)
250
20.0
-12%
2Q'09 estimate based upon partial results
200
15.0
150
10.0
100
5.0
50
0.0
-5.0
0
-10.0
-50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -15.0
Revenue 137 142 146 154 130 136 128 136 120 123 124 136 125 131 137 154 147 155 152 170 157 162 163 180 167 175 179 197 181 193 201 224 203 213 212 206 177 188
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Income 10 10 9 5 -3 -24 -15 -2 2 -12 -2 0 5 4 7 10 10 11 11 14 12 12 12 17 13 10 15 18 15 19 17 16 16 15 11 -7 8 11
Inventory 59 61 65 67 68 61 53 48 45 43 42 39 38 39 37 38 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 44 47 49 47 47 50 51 51 53 54 54 50 46 44
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Computer 13, Internet 2, Storage 9, Telecom 6, SEMI 14, Medical 4, Instruments 7, Military 6 Computer 13, Internet 2, Storage 9, Telecom 6, SEMI 14, Medical 4, Instruments 7, Military 6
Chart 1. Chart 2.
22 – Global SMT & Packaging – September 2009 www.globalsmt.net
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