Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Global insolvency index Annual change
% of world % of global GDP*
Global Insolvency Index Americas Index Asia-Pacific Index
Northern Europe Index
Germany-Austria-Switzerland Index France Index
Mediterranean countries Index Eurozone Index
84.1 28.8 25.0 13.0 6.9 4.1 6.3
19.2
34.3 29.7 15.4 8.2 4.9 7.5
22.8
insolvency index* 100.0
2010 2011 2012 2013
-12% -4% 1%
-2% 6% 1%
-5% -4% -8% -15% -6% -3% -4% -3% 17% 7%
Sources: national figures, Euler Hermes calculation and forecasts, Base 100: 2000 * GDP 2011 weighing at current exchange rates
1%
-12% -3% 4% 0% 2%
22% 14%
4% -6% 2% 2% 1% 2%
19% 12%
forecasts
Global insolvency index Basis, 2000=100
100 150 200 250 300
50 0 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: national statistics, Euler Hermes forecasts
Statistics by country % of world
GDP* USA
China Japan
Germany France Brazil UK
Italy Russia
Canada Spain
Australia
Korea (South) Netherlands Switzerland Sweden Poland
Belgium Norway Taiwan Austria
Denmark Greece Finland
Singapore Hong Kong Portugal Ireland
Czech Republic Romania Hungary
Slovak Republic Lithuania
Luxembourg
22.5 10.9 8.8 5.3 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
1 132 Global insolvency index
Euro zone United States
forecasts
% of global insolvency index* Total
26.8 12.9 10.4 6.3 4.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Sources: national figures, Euler Hermes forecasts * GDP 2011 weighting at current exchange rates
47,806 3,043
12,734 30,099 60,655 2,800
30,751 12,094 12,794 3,643 5,910
10,481 1,359 7,140 6,661 6,958 740
10,224 4,355 256
5,869 5,468 1,077 3,446 113 333
4,746 1,638 1,778
22,650 19,884 990
1,273 973
2011
-15% -18% -4% -6% -3% -6% 6% 7%
-20% -11% 18% 9%
-13% -1% 6%
-4% 7% 7%
-2% -4% -8%
-15% 33% 1%
-20% -24% 19% 7%
11% 4%
12% 12%
-22% 5%
Forecasts Change 2012
-13% -14% -3% -1% 2%
32% -6% 3% 5%
-10% 24% 5%
-4% 24% 2% 9%
27% 3%
-13% 2% 2%
-3% 30% 3%
30% -4% 43% 3% 9%
-2% 10% 2%
-3% 13%
2013
-7% 2% 2% 1% 2%
15% -4% 2% 3%
-3% 25% 3% 1% 2%
-1% 0%
10% 10% -5% 4% 3% 3%
10% 3% 4%
-3%
-10% 1% 8% 0% 5% 5% 0%
10% forecasts
Rates of indebtedness among financial institutions % of GDP, basis 2000=100
250 200 150 100 50
Spain Italy France Germany Japan Eurozone United States
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 12109876543210 Source: Banque de France
Lending to businesses Annual growth rate in %
10 15 20 25 30 35
-10 -5 0 5
France Spain
Eurozone Italy
germany
04
05
06
07 Sources: ECB, Euler Hermes 9
08
09
10
11
12
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52