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Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook


Euler Hermes


Economic forecasts


Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** CHF bn


SWITZERLAND GDP


Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment


Construction Equipment


Stocks Exports Imports


Net exports Current account


Unemployment rate Wages


Inflation General government balance **


General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP


Current account (% of GDP) Employment


* * **


share 100%


58% 11% 21% 9%


12% -1% 54% 43% 11%


2011 1.9


1.2 2.0 4.0 2.4 5.2


-0.1 3.8 4.2 0.2 61


10.5 0.6 3.0 1.4 0.3


2012 0.9


2.1 1.6 0.4


-2.4 2.7 0.2


-0.2 1.5


-0.7 73


12.3 1.5 2.8 1.1


-0.6


0.5 37


2013 1.0


0.9 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.3


-0.1 1.7 1.6 0.2 72


11.9 0.9 3.0 0.9 0.3


** 33 2 0.5 38


0.3 37


587 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators


Industrial output and confidence indices Quaterly industrial output in yearly change and confidence index


10 15


-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5


Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)


10 20 30 40


9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight


Retail sales and confidence indices Quaterly retail sales in yearly change and confidence index


-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)


10 20 30


9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight


-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0


-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0


593 603 forecasts


Current account balance and trading partners


Current account balance in% of GDP


12 15


8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts


0 3 6 9


Trading partners


USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011


Country Total


of which, euro zone Germany USA Italy


France UK


Country Total


of which, euro zone Germany Italy


France USA


Netherlands


Exports Share of total 235 112 47 24 18 17 11


100% 47.7% 20.2% 10.3% 7.8% 7.1% 4.8%


Imports Share of total 208 146 67 22 18 10 9


100% 70.2% 32.3% 10.4% 8.6% 5.0% 4.4%


Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 27


Zurich Berne


Eastern Switzerland


Number 868 378 543


North West Switzerland 857 Central Switzerland


754


Western Switzerland 1,730 Tessin Total


493 5,623


* Jan-Oct '11 to Jan-Oct '12 Source: FOSC, Creditreform


Change* Share -8.3% -0.5% -8.1% 14.6% -6.3% 10.3% 2.3% 1.8%


15.4% 6.7% 9.7%


15.2% 13.4% 30.8% 8.8%


100% forecasts


2014 1.7


1.3 0.7 2.4 0.9 3.5 0.0 4.1 4.3 0.3 79


12.7 1.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 2


0.3 36


619 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies


Insolvencies in number of cases


1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000


0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: OFS, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by region 2012


GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)


-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0


09 forecasts


GDP and components


Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks


GDP 10 11 12 13


2,631


3,545 3,952


3,820 4,156 4,552


4,183 4,363 4,196


3,613 4,002


3,842


4,539 4,955


4,314 4,221


4,528 4,751 5,215


6,255 6,661


6,770 6,720


4,451


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