Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** CHF bn
SWITZERLAND GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
58% 11% 21% 9%
12% -1% 54% 43% 11%
2011 1.9
1.2 2.0 4.0 2.4 5.2
-0.1 3.8 4.2 0.2 61
10.5 0.6 3.0 1.4 0.3
2012 0.9
2.1 1.6 0.4
-2.4 2.7 0.2
-0.2 1.5
-0.7 73
12.3 1.5 2.8 1.1
-0.6
0.5 37
2013 1.0
0.9 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.3
-0.1 1.7 1.6 0.2 72
11.9 0.9 3.0 0.9 0.3
** 33 2 0.5 38
0.3 37
587 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Quaterly industrial output in yearly change and confidence index
10 15
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)
10 20 30 40
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Quaterly retail sales in yearly change and confidence index
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
10 20 30
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
593 603 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
12 15
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
0 3 6 9
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany USA Italy
France UK
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Italy
France USA
Netherlands
Exports Share of total 235 112 47 24 18 17 11
100% 47.7% 20.2% 10.3% 7.8% 7.1% 4.8%
Imports Share of total 208 146 67 22 18 10 9
100% 70.2% 32.3% 10.4% 8.6% 5.0% 4.4%
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 27
Zurich Berne
Eastern Switzerland
Number 868 378 543
North West Switzerland 857 Central Switzerland
754
Western Switzerland 1,730 Tessin Total
493 5,623
* Jan-Oct '11 to Jan-Oct '12 Source: FOSC, Creditreform
Change* Share -8.3% -0.5% -8.1% 14.6% -6.3% 10.3% 2.3% 1.8%
15.4% 6.7% 9.7%
15.2% 13.4% 30.8% 8.8%
100% forecasts
2014 1.7
1.3 0.7 2.4 0.9 3.5 0.0 4.1 4.3 0.3 79
12.7 1.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 2
0.3 36
619 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: OFS, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by region 2012
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
09 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
2,631
3,545 3,952
3,820 4,156 4,552
4,183 4,363 4,196
3,613 4,002
3,842
4,539 4,955
4,314 4,221
4,528 4,751 5,215
6,255 6,661
6,770 6,720
4,451
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