Economic Outlook No.1189-1190

Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook Africa and Middle East Morocco Morocco Algeria Libya Tunisia

Lebanon Israel

Egypt Mauritania Cap Vert Gambia Senegal

Regional GDP growth is forecast at +3.4% in 2013, with a bounce back to +4.3% in 2014 but remaining below trend (annual average +5.2% in 2002-12). Uncertainties in commodity markets and in the global economy are partially responsible for lacklustre growth, but so are geo-political concerns in MENA (+2.9% in 2013 and +4% in 2014) and Sub-Saharan Africa (+4.4% and +4.9%). In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth in the largest economy, South Africa, will be +2.5% at best in 2012, partly because of widespread disruption in the mining sector, followed by +3% in 2013 and +3.5% in 2014 as political and social issues return to the fore and structural rigidities limit potential. Nigeria, which is rebasing its GDP calculation and may soon rival South Africa in economic size, Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana and Uganda are all expected to record annual GDP growth of +5% or more in 2013 and again in 2014, suggesting that strong expansion will derive from both oil and non-oil sectors. Key risks remain contagion from relatively unstable areas, including Mali and the heart of the Sahel, DR Congo and Somalia, and also a collapse in international commodity markets.

Mali

Guinea Bissau Sierra Leone

Togo Liberia Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome and Principe Gabon Congo

Democratic Republic of Congo

Uganda

Burundi Rwanda

Tanzania Malawi Angola Zambia Zimbabwe Namibia Botswana

South Africa

Lesotho Swaziland

Ile de la Réunion Mozambique

Madagascar Mauritius

Seychelles Guinea Burkina Faso Benin

Côte d'Ivoire

Ghana Cameroon Nigeria

Central African Rep.

South Sudan

Ethiopie Somalia Kenya Country Risk Level*

North Africa Egypt Algeria Morocco Tunisia Libya

In MENA, geo-political uncertainties continue to predominate with Iran’s nuclear programme, Israeli relations with Palestinian authorities, Sunni-Shia rivalries and animosities, fragile political transitions (Egypt, Tunisia and Libya) and civil war in Syria all adding to the regional dynamics. The non-oil countries (Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco) are particularly exposed to contagion effects._AA

Middle East Saudi Arabia Iran U.A.E. Israel Kuwait Qatar Iraq Oman Syria Lebanon Yemen Jordan Bahrain

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Angola Sudan Ghana Kenya Ethiopia Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Tanzania Equatorial Guinea Zambia Botswana Uganda Gabon Congo (Democratic Republic Of) Congo (People's Republic Of) Senegal Mozambique Namibia Mauritius Mali Madagascar Burkina Faso Chad Zimbabwe Benin Rwanda Niger Malawi Guinea (Rep Of) Mauritania Swaziland Togo Eritrea

* as of December 17, 2012 (see methodology page 48) **(1) high

sensitive medium sensitive high

low

high low low low low

high low

high high high low

sensitive low high

sensitive high

sensitive high high

sensitive high

sensitive high

sensitive low

sensitive sensitive high high

sensitive sensitive low low

high high

sensitive high high

sensitive high high high high high

sensitive high high

2011, millions **(2) 2011, millions of $ Niger Chad Sudan

Euler Hermes

Syria Iraq Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Qatar U.A.E

Oman Erithrea Yemen Djibouti

Iran

Population**(1) 164.6

79.4 36.0 32.2 10.7 6.5

216.2 28.2 75.9 5.4 7.6 3.7 1.8

32.8 3.1

21.4 4.0

25.1 6.3 1.1

865.7 50.6

160.3 19.6 32.7 24.3 40.9 86.8 20.9 22.7 42.2 1.4

13.6 1.9

35.2 1.5

72.6 4.0

13.4 22.0 2.1 1.3

15.9 21.9 15.0 10.5 12.6 9.9

10.2 15.1 16.2 10.6 3.3 1.2 7.1 5.5

**(3)

GDP**()2)

608.9 235.7 190.7 99.2 46.4 36.9

2,388.9 577.6 482.4 360.1 242.9 176.7 173.8 115.4 71.9 60.0 39.0 33.7 29.2 26.1

1,271.5 408.1 238.9 100.9 64.8 37.2 34.8 31.3 25.8 24.1 23.3 19.8 19.2 17.6 16.8 16.2 15.7 14.8 14.5 12.8 12.5 11.3 10.6 10.0 10.0 9.3 9.3 7.3 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.6 2.6

2011, in $ ppa

GDP per capita**(3) 3,699

2,970 5,304 3,083 4,351 5,691

11,047 20,505 6,360

67,002 31,985 47,981 98,330 3,513

23,318 2,803 9,863 1,340 4,675

23,125

1,469 8,066 1,490 5,144 1,982 1,529 851 360

1,230 1,062 553

14,660 1,414 9,482 478

10,656 216

3,714 1,076 583

5,828 8,777 669 459 664 892 741 737 605 399 351 492

1,290 3,356 506 475

Source: Euler Hermes r

43

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