Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
ITALY GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
60% 21% 19% 9%
10% 0%
28% 28% 0%
2011 0.6
0.1
-0.8 -1.3 -2.1 -0.5 -0.5 6.7 1.2 1.5 -48 -3.1 0.3 8.4 1.7 2.8 -62 -3.9 121
1,580 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-40 -30 -20 -10 0
2012 -2.1
-3.5 -0.6 -8.4 -6.6
-10.1 -0.6 0.5
-7.9 2.4 -20 -1.3 -0.1 10.7 -0.1 3.0 -47 -3.0 127
1,566
2013 -0.8
-1.9 -0.2 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.2 0.8
-1.7 0.7 -13 -0.8 -0.1 11.3 -0.2 1.8 -36 -2.3 129
1,578 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
89 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany France USA
Spain
Switzerland Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany France China
Netherlands Spain
Exports Share of total 515 217 69 61 30 28 28
100% 42.0% 13.3% 11.8% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4%
Imports Share of total 525 236 87 46 41 29 25
100% 45.0% 16.5% 8.9% 7.7% 5.5% 4.7%
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 31
Agriculture Industry
Construction Trade
Transport & communications Hotels & restaurants Consumer services Business services Others Total
Share 1.4%
22.2% 16.1% 29.3% 3.8% 4.1% 2.4% 9.9%
10.8% 100%
*number of ongoing procedures as of Q4 2011 Source: Movimprese
prévisions 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
2014 0.6
0.1 0.5 0.2
-0.2 0.5 0.0 2.8 1.5 0.4 -6
-0.4 0.4
11.1 0.5 2.1 -29 -1.8 127
1,621 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 09 10
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 11 12 13 forecasts
GDP and components
9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531
Sources: Istat, Ministerio della Giustizia, Bankitalia, Euler Hermes forecasts
Insolvencies by sector 2011*
8,721 9,891 9,916
11,988 13,115
13,740 12,178 10,683 6,126
10,767 11,312
11,641 10,463
10,272 12,279
7,272 9,314
11,400 12,094
12,500 12,700
14,893
16,016 16,061
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