Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
BELGIUM GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
52% 26% 19% 6%
13% 1%
83% 81% 2%
2011 1.8
0.2 1.1 4.0
-5.3 8.6 0.7 5.5 5.7
-0.1 -5
-1.4 0.6 7.2 2.7 3.5 -14 -3.9 98
370 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10
Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
10 15 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)
Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
2012 -0.2
-0.6 0.3
-0.4 -2.9 0.7
-0.3 0.4
-0.1 0.4 -4
-1.1 -0.5 7.4 3.0 2.6 -11 -2.8 98
377
2013 0.3
0.2 0.6
-0.1 -1.5 0.5
-0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 -1
-0.2 -0.4 7.7 2.1 2.1 -9
-2.3 99
386 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
forecasts
2014 1.4
0.9 0.6 2.8 1.3 3.4 0.0 4.2 4.1 0.2 3
0.7 0.5 7.8 1.9 1.7 -8
-1.9 99
398 Source: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
10,000 12,000
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany France
Netherlands UK
Italy
Country Total
of which, euro zone Netherlands Germany France UK
USA
Exports 465 282 87 79 58 33 21
Imports 462 266 92 69 50 28 24
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 17
Share of total 100% 60.8% 18.7% 17.0% 12.5% 7.2% 4.6%
Share of total 100% 57.6% 19.9% 15.0% 10.8% 6.0% 5.3%
Agriculture, Industry
Construction Trade
Hotels & restaurants Business services Total
Number Change* Share 75
523
1,489 2,228 1,721 2,665 8,739
* Jan-Oct '11 to Jan-Oct '12 Source: INS/SPF
13.6% 9.6%
0.9% 6.0%
5.2% 17.0% -1.2% 25.5% 5.6% 19.7% 0.8% 30.5% 3.0% 100%
0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 131975319753 Sources: INS, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
09 10 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 11 12 13
6,135 6,472 7,136 7,539
6,924 7,751
6,791 7,163
7,062 7,171
7,565
7,617 7,910
7,677
7,877 8,472
9,421 9,579
10,224 10,500 11,500
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