Euler Hermes


Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook


Contents no.1189-1190


EconomicOutlookno. 1189 - 1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and InsolvencyOutlook


Editorial page3


Overview page4


Latest changes


in country risks page41


Annex 1


Subsidiaries page50


EconomicOutlook


Series page52


Economic Forecasts pages46-47


Annexes 2 et 3 Country Risk Levels


and InsolvencyMethodology page48


Annex 4


World trade page49


Contributions for insolvency analysis


EH Americas United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dan North Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marcelo Oliveira Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dorothy Verwey EH Asia-Pacific Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .KeisukeMoriyama China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Edwin Gao Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Collin Lyon South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WilliamChan Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Willian Chan Hong Kong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WilliamChan Singapore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dorota Ulatowska


EH France France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Maxime Lemerle EH DACH* Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Romeo Grill Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mark Schulz Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marion Koll EHMediterranean and Africa Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Andrea Pignagnoli Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Jose LuisMontero Greece . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Katerina Panagiotou Portugal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .João Sales


Macroeconomic, Risk and InsolvencyOutlook


CountryAnalysis page10


>EH Americas United States>The day of fiscal reckoning Canada>Momentumon hold Brazil>Turning the corner


>EH Northern Europe UnitedKingdom>Arecovery litteredwith hazards Belgium>Difficult resilience, sownwith reforms Netherlands>Towards a triple dip? Sweden>Another cold snap for exports Russia>Decent growth in the coming years


>EH France France>No reason to be happy yet


>Eh DACH* Germany>Mixed picture being painted Switzerland>Partly decoupled


Austria>Temporary downward trend


>EHMediterranean and Africa Italy>Astep backward before leaping forward? Spain>Salvation in exports


Greece>Sixth year of contraction Portugal>Towards a third year of recession


>EH Asia-Pacific Japan>Geopolitical and fiscal pressure China>Cautious recovery.


India>Further reforms remain key to spur growth Australia>Amoremoderate growth


page 10 page 12 page 13


page 14 page 16 page 18 page 20 page 21


page 22


page 24 page 26 page 28


page 30 page 32 page 34 page 35


page 36 page 38 page 39 page 40


* Germany - Austria - Switzerland


EH Northern Europe United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Robin K Jootun Russia . . . . . . . . . . .Svetlana Chaprasova, Jean-Baptiste Dagan Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freek Fit Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .RafalMalek Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Paul Becue, nders Bjorkman Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Alexis Spanos,Mari Granlund Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .John Justad Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Stinus Christiansen, Anna Jakobsen Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tiina Björkqvist,Marina Välisaari Czech Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Daniel Sery Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gabriella László Slovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Martin Bak Romania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mihaela Bancu


The Economic Outlook is published once a month by the Economic Research Department of Euler Hermes. It is also available on subscription for other businesses and organisations. Reproduction is authorised, so long asmention of source ismade.oPublication Director and Chief Economist: Ludovic Subran •Macroeconomic Research: Maxime Lemerle (Manager), Mahamoud Islam, Ana Boata (Economists), Romeo Grill (Economist for Germany), Dan North (Economist for the USA), Clément Bouillet (JuniorsAnalyst) • Global Sector Research: Yann Lacroix (Manager), Bruno Goutard, Marc Livinec, Didier Moizo (Sector Economists) • Country Risk Research: David Atkinson (Manager), Andrew Atkinson,Manfred Stamer (Economists) • Graphic Design: Claire Mabille • Editor: Martine Benhadj • Support: Valérie Poulain,Mathilde Lavaud • Translation: Tectrad • For further information, contact: the Economic Research Department of Euler Hermes at 1, place des Saisons 92048 Paris la Défense, France – Tel: +33 (0)1 84 11 50 46 – e-mail: research@eulerhermes.com >Euler Hermes is a limited company with a Directoire and Supervisory Board, with a capital of 14,451,032.64 euros • Photoengraving: Evreux Compo, Evreux, France – Permit November-December 2012; ISSN 1 162 – 2 881 o December 20, 2012


2


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52