Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Russia
Overview A
Decent growth in the coming years
Overview Real GDP growth slowed down to an average +3.9% y/y in the first three quarters of 2012, after +4.3% in both 2010 and 2011. Quarterly figures show a continued loss of impetus from +4.9% y/y in Q1 to +2.9% in Q3 2012, largely as a result of softening investment and faltering exports, with Q3 also being affected by a poor harvest. Economic activity is projected to remain moderate into the first half of 2013, before regaining some momentum along with the global trend. Overall, GDP growth should pick up from +3.8% in 2012 to +4% in both 2013 and 2014, based on the assumption of relatively stable oil prices.
Insolvencies in number of cases
100,000
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0 9 931 96 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 131975319
Sources : Superior Arbitrage Court of Russia, Euler Hermes forecasts
Monetary policy likely to ease in 2013. The central bank raised its key policy interest rate by 25bp to 8.25% in September 2012 as inflation had accel- erated from a record low 3.6% in April to 6.6%, mainly owing to higher food prices resulting from the poor harvest and a rise of regulated utilities prices. As these effects will fade, inflation should fall in the course of 2013, allow- ing some monetary easing. Private con- sumption will remain resilient. Consumer spending was dampened in H2 2012 as a result of rising inflation but should regain momentum in 2013 as price pressures wane, wages rise reasonably and unemployment falls. Overall, private consumption is fore- cast to rise by about +6% in 2013, unchanged from 2012.
The government intends to constrain public spending. A draft fiscal plan for 2013-15 aims to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to swings in oil prices and implies further fiscal consolidation over the next years. Public spending is thus projected to grow by around +1.5% annually. The fiscal account should remain roughly balanced. Investment remains solid but below potential.
Fixed investment growth slowed from a peak in early 2012 but remained robust thanks to stronger-than- expected credit growth, reaching about +8% for 2012 as a whole. A slight moderation to +7.5% is expected in 2013. However, the investment-to-GDP ratio will remain relatively low at just over 20%. Russia's recent WTO entry provides room for stimulation of domestic and foreign investment but only in the medium term as expected improvements in the business envi- ronment will take time. Insolvencies, after increasing by +5% in 2012, should slightly decelerate in 2013 (+3%).
External trade will make a negative contribution to growth in 2013. Export growth is forecast to pick up to +2.5% but will be outpaced by import expan- sion of +8%. Nonetheless, the current account will continue to post a solid surplus of about +3% of GDP in 2013._MS
Trading partners USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF)
12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011 Country Total
of which, euro zone Netherlands China Italy
Germany Poland
Country Total
of which, euro zone China
Germany Italy USA
France Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth **RUB bn
RUSSIA GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General gov. balance ** ** forecasts * * **
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
share 2011 2012 2013 2014 100% 4.3 3.8 4.0 62% 6.7 16% 1.5 23% 8.4 -2% 3.3 35% 0.4 32% 20.3
6.0 1.5 8.0 0.2 0.3 6.5
5.0 0.7 5.7 3.6 5.1
6.0 1.5 7.5 0.1 2.5 8.0
3% -4.4 -1.4 -1.0
3.0 0.5 5.4 3.5 6.3
4.0 6.5 1.5 8.0 0.0 5.0
12.5 -1.2
2,916 3,076 2,053 1,652 5.3 3.2 6.1 3.5 8.4
General gov. balance (% of GDP) 1.6 Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
873 122 0.2 12
12
Sources: IHS Global Insight, National data, IMF, Euler Hermes forecasts
21
0.0 11
2.2 0.4 5.2 4.0 6.0
0 -296 -0.4 11
54,586 61,140 67,607 74,007
Exports 496 149 61 32 28 23 21
Imports 295 74 46 30 13 11 9
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF
Share of total 100% 30.0% 12.3% 6.5% 5.6% 4.6% 4.3%
Share of total 100% 25.1% 15.6% 10.0% 4.3% 3.8% 3.0%
Note pays structurelle
C
Country Risk Level SIGNIFICATIF
8,299 15,143
38,386 82,341
9,390 13,963
17,081 76,447
13,916 19,238
12,794 13,430 13,830
15,473 16,009
4,747
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