Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** JPY tn
JAPAN GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
59% 24% 15% 3%
13% -1% 16% 14% 3%
2011 -0.7
0.1 1.1 1.9 5.5 1.3
-0.5 -0.1 6.3
-0.8 2.1
-0.2 4.6 0.1
2012 1.7
2.1 3.4 1.6 2.9 1.3 0.0 0.9 6.2
-0.7
2013 0.3
0.1 1.8 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.0 1.3 4.7
-0.5 1.0
-0.3 -45 -9.5 204 468
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 20 30 40
-40 -30 -20 -10 0
100 105 110 115 120
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)
Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
70 75 80 85 90 95
-0.3 0.1 -45 -9.6 213 472
-0.1 4.3 0.0
2014 0.8
0.5 0.2 2.0 0.3 2.4 0.0 4.7 4.2 0.1
10 54 7 1.0 0.3 4.3
-0.2 -46 -9.8 220 472
forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
89 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone China USA
Korea (South) Hong Kong Thailand Country Total
of which, euro zone China USA
Australia
Saudi Arabia U.A.E.
Exports Share of total 824 69
100% 8.4%
162 128 66 43 37
19.6% 15.5% 8.0% 5.2% 4.5%
Imports Share of total 855 65
100% 7.6%
184 76 57 51 43
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF
21.5% 8.9% 6.6% 5.9% 5.0%
Agriculture Industry
Construction Wholesaling Retailing
Transport & communic. Finance
Real estate
Other services & Others Total
Number Change* Share 90 -2.2%
0.8%
1,640 -6.7% 14.6% 2,788 -10.5% 24.8% 1,655
7.2% 2.0%
9.8% 14.7%
1,335 -2.4% 11.9% 906 51
337 -11.8%
8.1% 0.5% 3.0%
2,432 -5.9% 21.6% 11,234 -4.0% 100%
* Jan-Nov '11 to Jan-Nov '12 Source: TSR
37 forecasts
1.4 0.1 4.2 0.4 0.1 -39 -8.3 226 475
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
09 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 13
9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: TSR, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012
6,468
10,723
15,108
14,069 14,061
15,108
14,834 16,464
15,352 16,255 12,998 13,679
13,245 14,091
12,270 12,450
12,734 13,321
15,646 15,480
18,988 18,769
19,087 19,164
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