Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
FRANCE GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
58% 25% 19% 5%
14% 0%
27% 30% -2%
2011 1.7
0.3 0.2 3.5 3.2 3.8 0.9 5.5 5.2 0.0 -39 -2.0 0.9 9.6 3.4 2.1
-104 -5.2 86
1,995 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2012 0.1
-0.1 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.4
-0.9 2.4 0.2 0.6 -43 -2.1 -0.2 10.4 1.8 2.0 -91 -4.5 91
2,033
2013 0.2
0.1 0.7
-0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 -43 -2.1 -0.4 10.7 1.3 1.6 -70 -3.4 93
2,071 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
forecasts
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Italy
Spain
Belgium UK
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Belgium Italy
Netherlands Spain
Exports 584 283 98 48 44 43 39
Imports 701 396 134 79 54 53 46
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 23
Share of total 100% 48.4% 16.7% 8.3% 7.4% 7.4% 6.7%
Share of total 100% 56.6% 19.1% 11.3% 7.7% 7.5% 6.6%
Industry
Construction Trade
Transport
Real estate activities Business services
Other service activities Hotels and restaurants Others Total
Number Change* Share 3,659
-0.4%
12,399 10,856 1,599 1,698 6,790 2,371 5,027 5,275
49,674
* Jan-Oct '11 to Jan-Oct '12 Source: Euler Hermes
7.4%
-2.0% 25.0% -0.2% 21.9% 11.2% 6.5%
3.2% 3.4%
4.2% 13.7% 1.4%
4.8%
5.0% 10.1% -5.2% 10.6% 0.5% 100%
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Source: Euler Hermes Insolvencies by sector 2012
2014 1.2
0.6 0.4 1.9 0.8 2.3 0.1 5.8 4.7 0.2 -40 -1.9 0.4
10.7 1.7 1.8 -61 -2.9 94
2,114 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
09 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
46,495
53,988 60,558
60,427
43,342 43,276 44,285
47,786 53,949 64,814
58,213 62,643
61,004
49,383 49,056 49,494
47,335 49,995
57,626 64,517
60,655 62,850
63,332 61,820
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