Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
SPAIN GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
58% 22% 20% 9%
10% 2%
34% 36% -2%
2011 0.4
-0.8 -0.5 -5.3 -9.0 -1.6 -0.6 7.6
-0.9 2.7 -37 -3.5 -1.9 21.6 -0.8 3.1 -95 -8.9 69
1,063 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)
Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2012 -1.5
-1.7 -4.3 -8.9
-11.5 -6.5 -0.4 3.5
-3.9 2.6 -21 -2.0 -4.5 25.1 -4.5 2.5 -79 -7.5 85
1,053
2013 -1.6
-1.4 -5.3 -3.8 -6.6 -1.3 0.0 3.6 0.7 1.0 -15 -1.4 -1.3 25.9 -2.2 2.0 -70 -6.7 96
1,050 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
forecasts
2014 0.6
0.3
-2.5 2.1
-0.4 4.1 0.0 3.6 2.0 0.6 -10 -0.9 1.3
24.7 0.1 1.4 -62 -5.8 99
1,071 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
10,000
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
0
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone France
Germany Portugal Italy UK
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany France Italy
China Netherlands
Exports Share of total 300 161 54 32 25 25 20
100% 53.7% 17.8% 10.6% 8.3% 8.3% 6.7%
Imports Share of total 371 173 48 44 25 22 19
100% 46.6% 13.0% 11.8% 6.7% 5.8% 5.0%
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 33
Agriculture Industry
Construction Trade
Hotels & restaurants Transport & communic. Business services Others Total
Number Change* Share 51
18.6%
1,001 1,673 946 167 257 890 465
* Jan-Sep '11 to Jan-Sep '12 Source: INE
0.9%
23.0% 18.4% 21.8% 30.7% 27.3% 17.4% 25.6% 31.8%
3.1% 4.7%
33.4% 16.3% 28.8%
8.5% 5,450 25.9% 100% 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources : INE, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012 forecasts 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 09 10
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 11 12 13
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
GDP and components
1,666 1,642
1,362
896 774
759 1,037 1,012 743 927
828 1,135
483
1,150 2,064 1,345
916 1,033 2,894
4,990 5,175
5,910 7,350 9,200
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52