Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** GBP bn
UNITED KINGDOM GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
63% 23% 15% 9% 6% 1%
31% 32% -1%
2011 0.9
-0.9 0.2
-1.5 -2.9 0.7 0.4 4.5 0.5 1.2 -29 -1.9 0.5 8.1 2.3 4.4
-118 -7.8 85
1,519 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)
10 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)
Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2012 -0.1
0.5 2.4 1.2 6.4
-7.3 -0.6 0.1 1.9
-0.6 -55 -3.5 1.1 8.0 3.4 2.6
-101 -6.5 90
1,555
2013 0.8
0.4
-1.5 2.1 1.1 3.8 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.5 -32 -2.0 0.6 7.9 1.7 2.2
-115 -7.2 94
1,602 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany USA
Netherlands France
Switzerland Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany China
Netherlands USA
France
Exports 464 215 51 46 37 34 33
Imports 640 268 80 52 45 45 36
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 15
Share of total 100% 46.4% 10.9% 9.9% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1%
Share of total 100% 41.9% 12.6% 8.2% 7.1% 7.0% 5.7%
forecasts
2014 1.3
0.6
-0.2 3.8 2.8 5.6 0.0 2.4 1.1 0.4 -21 -1.3 0.9 7.4 3.1 2.4 -97 -5.9 98
1,662 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources : DTI, Euler Hermes forecasts
Insolvencies by sector 2012 England and Wales only
Agriculture Manufacturing
Number Change* Share 106 987
Electricity, gas, water supply 66 Construction
wholesaling & retailing Hotels & restaurants
2,648 2,137 1,353
Transport, storage & com. 768 Financial intermediation Real estate, & business Others Total
208
3,216 3,641
15,130
* Jan-Jun '11 to Jan-Jun '12 Source: DTI
-30.7% -15.8% 17.9% -14.2% -6.0% -3.8%
-18.6% -10.7% -7.4% 13.2%
1% 7% 0%
18% 14% 9% 5% 1%
21% 24%
-5.5% 100%
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
09 forecasts
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
36,142 31,579
26,541 26,144
29,498 27,536
26,859 28,020
27,995
24,819 27,187
26,054
22,832 28,713
29,994 35,185
29,115 30,751 28,600
28,400
44,877 44,594
52,728
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