Euler Hermes Europes Iceland
Regional GDP growth in emerging Europe will pick up gradually from +2.4% in 2012 to +3% in 2013 and +3.4% in 2014. This reflects a fading of the adverse effects that almost halved growth in 2012. Lower inflation will allow monetary easing in countries with robust exchange rate regimes and some countries have already made good progress regarding fiscal consolidation. Moreover, external demand in emerging Europe should recover once the recession in the eurozone gives way to modest expansion in H2 2013. Economic activity in the region as a whole continued to decelerate for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 2012, growing by just +1.6% y/y after +2.6% in Q2. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia remain firmly in recession and will recover only gradually in 2013. In fact, Slovenia will continue to contract as it is facing a banking crisis, rising government funding costs and a probable EU/IMF bailout at some point. Romania moved out of recession in Q2 but showed a renewed fall of GDP in Q3 (-0.6% y/y). Poland and the Slovak Republic lost impetus but will continue to post positive growth. Contrary to the regional trend, growth in the Baltic states strengthened in Q3 and short-term country risk is improving. As expected, Russia posted weaker Q3 growth (+2.9% y/y) owing to a poor harvest, but robust domestic demand and relatively stable oil prices should ensure solid growth of around +4% in 2013. Ukraine remains high risk, as the economy contracted in Q3 (-1.3% y/y) and the government introduced capital controls in November 2012 to protect the UAH/USD peg and FX reserves which have fallen by -24% y/y. Turkey seems to head for a soft landing, but the sharper than expected slowdown to +1.6% y/y in Q3 means that the risk of a hard landing has increased slightly._MS
Denmark Ireland United Kingdom
Netherlands Belgium
Lux. France Switzerland Portugal Spain Italy Vatican Montenegro Gibraltar (UK) Malta Country Risk Level*
Western Europe Germany France UK Italy Spain Netherlands Switzerland Sweden Belgium Norway Austria Denmark Greece Finland Portugal Ireland Luxembourg Iceland
Central and Eastern Europe Russia Turkey Poland Czech Republic Romania Ukraine Hungary Slovak Republic Croatia Azerbaijan Belarus Bulgaria Slovenia Serbia Lithuania Latvia Cyprus Estonia Bosnia and Herzegovina Georgia Albania Macedonia Armenia Malta Moldova Montenegro
* as of December 17, 2012 (see methodology page 48) **(1) 44
low low low
sensitive sensitive medium low low
medium low low low
high low
sensitive sensitive low
sensitive
sensitive sensitive low
medium high high high low
high
sensitive high
medium sensitive high
sensitive sensitive sensitive medium high high high high high
medium high high
2011, millions **(2) 2011, millions of $
Population**(1) 411.1
81.8 63.1 62.6 60.6 46.2 16.7 7.8 9.5
11.0 5.0 8.4 5.6
11.2 5.4
10.7 4.6 0.5 0.3
416.3 142.4 74.0 37.9 10.5 21.4 45.6 10.0 5.4 4.4 9.1 9.4 7.4 2.0 7.4 3.3 2.2 0.8 1.3 3.9 4.5 3.2 2.1 3.3 0.4 3.6 0.6
**(3) 2011, in $ ppa GDP**()2)
17,326.1 3,577.0 2,776.3 2,417.6 2,198.7 1,493.5 840.4 636.1 538.2 513.4 483.7 419.2 333.2 303.1 266.6 238.9 217.7 58.4 14.0
4,482.7 1,850.4 778.1 513.8 215.3 189.8 165.0 140.3 96.1 63.8 62.3 55.5 53.5 49.6 45.1 42.7 28.3 24.9 22.2 18.0 14.3 12.8 10.3 10.1 8.9 7.0 4.5
Macedonia Greece Germany Czech Republic Slovakia
Austria Slovenia
Moldavia Hungary Croatia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Serbia Bulgaria Turkey Romania Norvège Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Sweden Finland Norway Estonia
Lithuania Latvia
Russia Poland Ukraine Belarus Russia
Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Cyprus
GDP per capita**(3) 42,145
43,741 44,008 38,592 36,267 32,360 50,355 81,161 56,956 46,877 97,255 49,809 59,924 27,074 49,353 22,413 47,516
113,642 43,092
10,768 12,993 10,522 13,540 20,443 8,863 3,621
14,050 17,644 14,457 6,832 5,881 7,201
24,536 6,081
13,076 12,669 30,575 16,586 4,618 3,210 3,992 5,016 3,033
21,031 1,969 7,272
Source: Euler Hermes
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