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Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook


Euler Hermes


Economic forecasts


Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn


GERMANY GDP


Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment


Construction Equipment


Stocks Exports Imports


Net exports Current account


Unemployment rate Wages


Inflation General government balance ** **


General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP


Current account (% of GDP) Employment


* * **


share 100%


56% 19% 18% 9% 9% 1%


50% 44% 6%


2011 3.1


1.7 1.0 6.4 6.0 6.7 0.2 7.9 7.5 0.6


147 5.7 1.4 6.7 1.7 2.2


2012 1.0


0.6 1.0


-1.5 -0.2 -2.9 -0.5 4.8 2.6 1.3


176 6.7 1.0 6.5 2.8 2.0


0.1 82


2013 0.8


0.9 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.9


-0.1 3.3 3.5 0.1


184 6.8 0.5 6.5 2.3 1.9


0.0 80


2014 1.9


1.2 0.8 3.5 2.0 5.1 0.0 5.3 5.3 0.4


190 6.8 0.8 6.6 2.2 2.0


-20 30 -3 -0.8 81


-0.1 78


2,589 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators


Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)


10 15


-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5


10 20


9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)


Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight


Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4


10 15


9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)


Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight


-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5


-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0


2,649 2,698 forecasts


Current account balance and trading partners


Current account balance in% of GDP


8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts


-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8


Trading partners


USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011


Country Total


of which, euro zone France


Netherlands UK


Italy Austria


Country Total


of which, euro zone Netherlands France China


Belgium Italy


Exports Share of total 1392 567 141 97 91 86 80


100% 40.7% 10.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.2% 5.8%


Imports Share of total 1240 542 173 95 88 80 67


Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 25


100% 43.7% 14.0% 7.7% 7.1% 6.5% 5.4%


Industry


Construction Trade


Transport & communic. Hotels & restaurants Real estate


Number Change* Share 1,689 -2.7% 7.7% 3,538 -3.9% 16.2% 4,066 -5.8% 18.6% 2,250 -2.9% 10.3% 2,283 -11.5% 10.5% 746 -12.9% 3.4%


Finance & business services 4,938 -0.6% 22.6% Other services Others Total


21,803 -4.6% 100%


* Jan-Sep '11 to Jan-Sep '12 Source: Destatis


2,096 -4.9% 9.6% 197 0.0% 0.9%


forecasts


10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


5,000 0


2,778 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies


Insolvencies in number of cases


GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)


-5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0


09 forecasts


GDP and components


Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks


GDP 10 11 12 13


9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: DeStatis, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012


8,680 8,838 10,920 15,582


18,837 22,344 25,530 27,474


26,476 27,828


28,235 32,278


37,260


29,160 29,291


34,137


29,700 31,998


30,000


30,099 32,687


36,843


39,320 39,213


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