Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
GERMANY GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
56% 19% 18% 9% 9% 1%
50% 44% 6%
2011 3.1
1.7 1.0 6.4 6.0 6.7 0.2 7.9 7.5 0.6
147 5.7 1.4 6.7 1.7 2.2
2012 1.0
0.6 1.0
-1.5 -0.2 -2.9 -0.5 4.8 2.6 1.3
176 6.7 1.0 6.5 2.8 2.0
0.1 82
2013 0.8
0.9 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.9
-0.1 3.3 3.5 0.1
184 6.8 0.5 6.5 2.3 1.9
0.0 80
2014 1.9
1.2 0.8 3.5 2.0 5.1 0.0 5.3 5.3 0.4
190 6.8 0.8 6.6 2.2 2.0
-20 30 -3 -0.8 81
-0.1 78
2,589 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
10 15
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Household confidence index (right axis)
Retail sales (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2,649 2,698 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone France
Netherlands UK
Italy Austria
Country Total
of which, euro zone Netherlands France China
Belgium Italy
Exports Share of total 1392 567 141 97 91 86 80
100% 40.7% 10.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.2% 5.8%
Imports Share of total 1240 542 173 95 88 80 67
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 25
100% 43.7% 14.0% 7.7% 7.1% 6.5% 5.4%
Industry
Construction Trade
Transport & communic. Hotels & restaurants Real estate
Number Change* Share 1,689 -2.7% 7.7% 3,538 -3.9% 16.2% 4,066 -5.8% 18.6% 2,250 -2.9% 10.3% 2,283 -11.5% 10.5% 746 -12.9% 3.4%
Finance & business services 4,938 -0.6% 22.6% Other services Others Total
21,803 -4.6% 100%
* Jan-Sep '11 to Jan-Sep '12 Source: Destatis
2,096 -4.9% 9.6% 197 0.0% 0.9%
forecasts
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
5,000 0
2,778 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0
09 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: DeStatis, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012
8,680 8,838 10,920 15,582
18,837 22,344 25,530 27,474
26,476 27,828
28,235 32,278
37,260
29,160 29,291
34,137
29,700 31,998
30,000
30,099 32,687
36,843
39,320 39,213
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