Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** USD bn
UNITED STATES GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment Construction Equipment Stocks
Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* **
share 100%
71% 19% 13% 2%
*
10% 0%
13% 16% -3%
2011 1.8
2.5
-3.1 6.6
-1.4 8.6
-0.2 6.7 4.8 0.1
-466 -3.1 0.6 8.9 2.0 3.3
-1250 -8.3 101
15,076 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
100 120 140 160
20 40 60 80
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
0
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
2012 2.2
1.8
-1.4 7.8
11.6 6.9 0.1 3.6 2.8 0.0
-508 -3.2 1.7 8.1 1.5 2.2
-1129 -7.2 105
15,684
2013 1.9
1.9
-0.4 3.9 9.5 2.4 0.1 4.3 3.5 0.0
-495 -3.0 1.1 7.7 1.9 2.0
-1039 -6.4 108
16,230 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Canada Mexico China Japan UK
Country Total
of which, euro zone China
Canada Mexico Japan
Germany
Exports 1,481 196 281 198 104 66 56
Exports 2,265 288 417 321 265 132 100
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 11
Share of total 100% 13.2% 19.0% 13.3% 7.0% 4.5% 3.8%
Share of total 100% 12.7% 18.4% 14.2% 11.7% 5.8% 4.4%
Chapter 7 Chapter11 Chapter12 Chapter13
Other chapters Total
Number 20,889
6,709 412
2,481 129
30,620
Change* Share -19%
-10% -19% -9%
130% -16%
Source: Administrative Office of US Courts * Jan-Sep '11 to Jan-Sep '12
68% 22% 1% 8% 0%
100% forecasts
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531
Sources: Administrative Office of US Courts, Euler Hermes forecasts
Business bankruptcies by Chapter 2012
2014 2.5
2.6
-1.3 7.2
10.3 6.5 0.0 6.5 6.5
-0.2
-477 -2.8 1.5 7.1 2.2 2.1
-981 -5.8 110
16,909 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
09 forecasts
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
6,2304
5,2374 5,1959
3,7884 4,4367
3,5472 4,0099
3,8540 3,4317 1,9695 2,8322
3,5037 3,9201
4,3546 6,0837 5,6282 4,1510 3,8740 4,7806
5,3549 5,4027
6,4853 7,0643
7,1549
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