Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
NETHERLANDS GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
* * **
share 100%
45% 27% 18% 10% 8% 1%
80% 70% 9%
2011 1.1
-1.0 0.1 5.7 3.4 8.8 0.0 3.9 3.6 0.5 59
9.7 0.0 5.4 1.1 2.4 -27 -4.4 66
602 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5
Industrial confidence index (right axis) Industrial output (left axis in %)
10
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
10 20 30 40
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-30 -20 -10 0
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
2012 -0.9
-1.5 0.5
-4.9 -8.7 -0.2 0.1 2.2 2.0 0.4 49
8.2
-0.1 6.4 1.5 2.7 -24 -4.0 70
600
2013 0.1
-0.5 -0.5 -0.7 0.7
-2.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.3 51
8.4
-0.3 7.0 1.4 2.1 -18 -3.0 73
612 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
10
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
0 2 4 6 8
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Belgium France UK
Italy
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany China
Belgium UK
Russie
Exports Share of total 649 405 170 92 61 50 31
100% 62.4% 26.2% 14.1% 9.3% 7.7% 4.8%
Imports Share of total 594 202 86 70 51 36 35
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 19
100% 34.0% 14.5% 11.9% 8.7% 6.1% 6.0%
Agriculture Industry
Construction Trade
Hotels & restaurants
Number Change* Share 145 43.6%
2.0%
818 26.4% 11.2% 1,250 40.3% 17.2% 1,593 21.8% 21.9% 337 -8.7%
Transport - communication 463 56.9% 468 22.8% forecasts
2014 1.6
0.6
-0.1 4.0 2.0 6.4 0.0 5.9 5.8 0.7 57
9.0 0.6 7.0 1.7 1.9 -17 -2.7 73
634 Sources : IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
10,000
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources: CBS, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
09 10 forecasts
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 11 12 13
4.6% 6.4%
Finance & business services 2,214 20.9% 30.4% Others Total
* Jan-Oct '11 to Jan-Oct '12 Source: CBS
6.4% 7,288 25.1% 100%
3,534 3,530
5,045 5,512 5,333
4,409 4,534 4,783
3,238 4,015
3,579 4,330 4,963 6,386
4,602 4,635
5,941 6,648
6,780
7,211 8,040
7,140
8,910 9,070
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