Economic Outlook No.1189-1190

Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook

Euler Hermes

Kazakhstan Asia-Pacific Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrghyzstan Tajikistan China Afghanistan

Growth of the emerging Asia-Pacific economies will increase to +6.4% in 2013 and +6.7% in 2014 after dipping below +6% in 2012, a slower pace than in 2009, though this reflects mainly the weight of the two largest economies, China and India, both of which have slowed markedly. Policies are more expansionary, which should support the modest upturn envisaged, though the region still faces headwinds from subdued export demand. Overall, however, most major economies should remain resilient. There are signs of a pick-up in growth in China, but policies are likely to remain relatively cautious under the new leadership formally announced in November, and, absent an upsurge in export demand, GDP growth will be only moderately higher in 2013-14 than in 2012. Hong Kong and Taiwan were hit by the global slowdown in 2012 and growth will be just over +1% in 2012 but should recover to +3% or more in 2013. In India, GDP growth was a relatively weak +5.3% y/y in Q3 and the slowdown is likely to prompt monetary loosening in 2013 but the central bank is likely to remain cautious as inflationary pressures remain evident. Recent economic reforms in the retail and airline sectors need to be extended to other parts of the economy to improve confidence and stimulate growth. Growth in South Korea fell to +2% in 2012 but should gradually recover in 2013-14. Contrary to the overall trend, ASEAN sub-region growth strengthened to just over +5% in 2012, though this mainly reflects the rebound in Thailand from the flood-related downturn in 2011. Also, Malaysia and the Philippines showed resilience and performed stronger than expected in 2012. Growth in these three economies should slow somewhat to the +4-5% range in 2013. The domestic-demand driven Indonesian economy will maintain over +6% growth in 2012-14. Growth in the highly external trade-dependent economy of Singapore will slowly recover from the weak +1.5% in 2012. Overall, ASEAN growth will ease to +4.8% in 2013, before picking up to just over +5% in 2014._DA/MS/AA

Pakistan Nepal India Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar Laos

Thailand Cambodia

Vietnam Micronesia Sri Lanka Maldives Brunei Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Nauru Indonesia Indonesia

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu Palau (US) Kiribati Hong Kong Philippines Guam (US)

Marshall Islands

Taiwan Japan

South, Central and East Asia China India Korea (South) Indonesia Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Singapore Hong Kong Philippines Pakistan Kazakhstan Vietnam Bangladesh Sri Lanka Myanmar Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Nepal Afghanistan Brunei Cambodia Mongolia Laos Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan East Timor Maldives Bhutan

Oceania Australia New Zealand Papua New Guinea Fiji Solomon Islands Vanuatu Samoa Tonga Kiribati

* as of December 17, 2012 (see methodology page 48) **(1)

Country Risk Level* low

low low low

sensitive low low low low low

sensitive high high high high

sensitive high high high high high low

high high high high high high high

sensitive

low low

sensitive high high

sensitive sensitive high

sensitive 2011, millions **(2) 2011, millions of $

Mongolia

North Korea

South Korea Japan

Vanuatu Australia

New Caledonia (F)

Vanuatu Vanuatu

Fiji

Tasmania New Zealand

Population**(1) 127.6

3,759.1 1,348.1 1,206.9 49.0

241.0 23.2 64.1 28.7 5.3 7.1

95.9

175.3 16.7 89.3

166.7 20.5 62.4 28.8 5.5

28.5 31.1 0.4

15.1 2.8 6.6 7.8 5.5 1.1 0.3 0.7

36.5 22.7 4.4 6.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

**(3) 2011, in $ ppa

GDP**()2) 5,458.8

13,652.1 7,298.1 1,676.1 1,116.2 845.7 466.8 345.6 278.7 259.8 243.3 213.1 210.6 178.3 122.7 113.0 59.1 51.9 45.4 25.7 18.6 18.2 15.5 12.9 8.5 7.9 6.5 5.9 4.3 1.9 1.5

1,669.1 1,488.2 161.9 12.7 3.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2

GDP per capita**(3) 42,783

3,632 5,414 1,389

22,778 3,509

20,100 5,394 9,700

49,270 34,047 2,223 1,201

10,694 1,374 678

2,877 832

1,572 4,658 653 585

36,548 852

3,042 1,204 831

1,070 3,948 5,982 2,123

45,777 65,477 36,651 1,900 3,966 1,556 3,033 9,375 4,221 1,590

Source: Euler Hermes 45 5

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