Economic Outlook no. 1189-1190 |Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook
Euler Hermes
Economic forecasts
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** EUR bn
AUSTRIA GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks Exports Imports
Net exports Current account
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance ** **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP
Current account (% of GDP) Employed
* * **
share 100%
54% 19% 20% 10% 10% 2%
55% 50% 5%
2011 2.7
0.9 0.5 6.3 3.7 9.0 0.4 7.1 7.0 0.4
0.6 1.5 4.2 2.0 3.3 -8
-2.5 72
301 Sources : IHS Global Insight, forecasts Euler Hermes Short-term advanced indicators
Industrial output and confidence indices Industrial output in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
10 15
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
10 20
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Industrial confidence index (right axis)
Industrial output (left axis in %) Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
Retail sales and confidence indices Retail sales in yearly change (3-month average) and confidence index (2-month average)
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13210987654321098 Sources: national statistics, IHS Global Insight
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Household confidence index (right axis) Retail sales (left axis in %)
10 15 20
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-40 -30 -20 -10 0
2012 0.4
0.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8
-0.2 1.8 1.7 0.1
2013 0.5
0.4 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.1
26 7 2.0 1.5 4.4 3.2 2.4 -10 -3.1 74
309
2.2 0.3 4.6 1.8 2.0 -8
-2.6 75
316 forecasts
Current account balance and trading partners
Current account balance in% of GDP
8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 13197531975319 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Trading partners
USD billions: exports (FOB), imports (CIF) 12-months cumulative figures to end of Dec 2011
Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Italy
Switzerland France
Czech Republic Country Total
of which, euro zone Germany Italy
Switzerland Netherlands
Czech Republic
Imports Share of total 172 90 55 13 8 7 7
100% 52.3% 32.3% 7.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0%
Imports Share of total 189 118 81 13 10 8 7
100% 62.3% 42.8% 6.8% 5.5% 4.0% 3.8%
Sources: IHS Global Insight, IMF 29
Construction Industry
Number 802 624
Transport & communic. 490 Hotels & restaurants Other services Others Total
* Jan-Sep '11 to Jan-Sep '12 Source: KSV
624 891
1,025 4,456
Change* Share 12.3% 0.0% 2.8%
-9.7% -4.8% 8.1% 1.5%
18.0% 14.0% 11.0% 14.0% 20.0% 23.0% 100%
forecasts
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1319753197531 Sources : KSV, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies by sector 2012
2014 1.6
0.9 0.3 2.5 2.0 3.1 0.1 3.3 2.8 0.5 8
2.4 0.8 4.4 1.9 1.8 -7
-2.0 75
327 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes forecasts Insolvencies
Insolvencies in number of cases
GDP growth and contribution of the components, in percentage points (quaterly data)
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
09 forecasts
GDP and components
Internal demand excluding stocks Net exports Stocks
GDP 10 11 12 13
2,677 3,356 3,658
5,082
4,850 4,994
4,816 5,738 5,053 5,340
5,178 5,281
5,643 6,318
7,056
6,315 6,315
5,869 6,130
5,960 6,707 6,902 6,376 5,860
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