SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2010
KLMNO
EZ RE
Politics & The Nation
Billions in federal aid in next decade depend on accurate numbers
BY SEEMAMEHTA
los angeles — California offi- cials estimate that theU.S.Census Bureau failed to count 1.5 million of the state’s residents, a discrep-
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ancy that, if true, could cost the state billions of dollars in federal aid over the next decade and perhaps an increase in its repre- sentation in Congress. OnTuesday, the Census Bureau
released national and state popu- lation figures that showed Cali- fornia to have 37.3 million resi- dents, 10 percent more than in 2000. That growth — based on mailed-in surveys and door-to- door interviews by census takers
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— roughly mirrored the nation’s, but meant that for the first time since California became a state in 1850 it did not grow enough to add a member to its congressio- nal delegation. But according to the state De-
partment of Finance, the state’s population was 38.8 million on July 1. That figure is drawn from birth and death statistics, school- enrollment data, driver’s license address changes, tax returns and
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Medicare enrollment, a set of data points that provides a “more refined” picture of the popula- tion, according to H.D. Palmer, a department spokesman. The extra 1.5 million people
could have meant the addition of at least one seat in theU.S.House —an irrelevant point because of a 1999 Supreme Court ruling that said reapportionment must be based on the census. However, the court left open
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the possibility of using adjusted figures to distribute federal funds that are determined by the census — now more than $400 billion annually. The huge sums at stake — at a time when state and local governments are facing annual, multibillion-dollar deficits — raises the prospect of a court challenge from state and local officials. “It cuts away at our share of the $400 billion a year that the feder-
A7 Californians undercounted in census, state officials say
al government doles out to states. It made it so for the first time California didn’t actually grow its congressional delegation, there- fore we’re not going to have as strong a voice as we could have. It puts us at a disadvantage,” said state Assembly Speaker John Per- ez, a Los Angeles Democrat. “I’m looking seriously to seewhat hap- pens in the post-count scenario, into every option for going to get the kind of adjustment that re- flects our growth.” Gov.-elect Jerry Brown will re-
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view the matter after taking of- fice, a spokesman said. Census Bureau officials could not be reached Thursday. “In every census, there are peo-
plewhoare missed and also some people who are counted twice,” said Hans Johnson, director of research at thePublicPolicy Insti- tute of California. “After each census, generally there’s a debate and there’s some technical work that goes on that tries to deter- mine what the likely size of the undercount was. . . . Right now, it’s still early. It’s hard to say.” A 2001 study by the Democratic members of theU.S. CensusMon- itoring Board found that the2000 count missed half a million Cali- fornians, potentially costing the state $1.3 billion over the ensuing decade. The reasons for the discrepan-
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cy between state and federal fig- ures will not be known until the Census Bureau releases more de- tailed data breakdowns in 2011 and 2012. A key question, however, is
whether any undercountwasuni- form across the states. A uniform undercount would not affect fed- eral funding since the states’ rela- tive proportions would remain the same. An undercount of a particular population, however, could affect some states and not others. “This is a real can of worms,”
said census historian Margo An- derson of the University of Wis- consin atMilwaukee. If the error rate “is stark
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enough to show substantial inter- state differences, you can bet there will be governors and state legislatures squawking all over the country,” she said. Anderson, the co-author of
“WhoCounts?ThePolitics of Cen- sus-Taking in Contemporary America,” said state lawsuits are a given after the decennial count, but she could recall none success- fully alleging an undercount. However, the Census Bureau
also updates local population es- timates annually for the purposes of federal funding, and cities and counties have successfully chal- lenged those figures. In 2008, San Francisco appealed its 2007 esti- mate, and the Census Bureau agreed that it had underestimat- ed the city’s population by 34,209. Local officials said they would
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do whatever it takes to ensure that their populations are count- ed accurately. “If there is evidence of an un- dercount, the city will strongly consider all options for us to receive our fair share of federal funding,” said Los AngelesMayor Antonio Villaraigosa. California is home to large numbers of people least likely to participate in the census, includ- ing minorities, the young and low-income households. Ten of the top 50 “hard-to-count” coun- ties in the nation are in Califor- nia, and it has a large population of illegal immigrants, who are less likely to participate in the survey for fear that it would put them on the government’s radar. A 2008 study found that the
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state had more than 5 million hard-to-count residents. This year, the problem may
have been compounded by the state spending significantly less on census outreach than it did a decade ago, though nonprofit or- ganizations and private founda- tions tried to fill the gap. “I don’t think any amount of outreach is going to fully elimi- nate the undercount, particularly in [historically undercounted] communities, some of which are very well represented in Califor- nia’s population,” said Thomas A. Saenz, president and general counsel of theMexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. The organization and others
tried to reassure Latino immi- grants that participating in the census was “safe, important and simple. But the emphasis was on the first, the safety.” —Los Angeles Times
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“After each census, generally there’s a debate.”
—Hans Johnson, Public Policy Institute of California
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