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Politics & The Nation
Politics&Nation More body scanners coming to an airport near you
Apple’s gadgets help preserve a tribe’s endangered language Californians undercounted in census, state officials say Digest
California:Newborn girl left at L.A. station
TheWorld Military hospital treats children and Afghans too
Blast kills 42 at food aid center in Pakistan
Dutch police arrest 12 Somali men suspected of plotting attack Iraq to resume oil exports from its Kurdish north
Digest Britain: In Christmas message, queen encourages sports
CORRECTION
l In today’s Magazine, which was printed in advance, the pho-
to credits for the Closer Inspec- tion feature on the gingerbread WhiteHouse are incomplete. All
of the photographs were by Ben- jamin C. Tankersley except for the one of the White House model; that photo was by Jahi Chikwendiu.
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China raises interest a second time in 3 months in effort to slow property, inflation gains
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John Godzieba, portraying
Gen.George Washington and holding a spyglass, guides the reenactment of the 1776 crossing of the Delaware River in Washington Crossing, Pa., on Saturday.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2010
Outgoing governors’ group leader sees ‘watershed’ moment R
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ay Scheppachmay not be a household name in Washington, butwhen he
steps down early in the newyear as executive director of the NationalGovernorsAssociation, the capitalwill have lost one of itsmost knowledgeable and valuable public servants. Scheppach has spent three
decades at the intersection of state and federal governments. He has sized up rising political talent (two governors fromhis years, Bill Clinton ofArkansas andGeorgeW. Bush of Texas, went on to become president).He hasweathered partisan upheavals and survived internal strains that threatened to disrupt the generally bipartisan organization. He is nowpreparing for the
next chapter of his careerwith a move to theUniversity of
Virginia.As he reflected on his years at theNGAa fewdays ago, he acknowledged that the decision to depart is bittersweet, as it comes during one of the most challenging times that states have ever faced. Scheppach hasworkedwith
governors in good times and bad. His tenure has spanned three
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serious recessions.What states are experiencing today, he believes, is farworse than anything that hit themduring the downturns in the early 1980s and early 1990s. “This is probably 80 timesworse than that,” he said. Abudget expert by training
(hewas deputy director of the Congressional BudgetOffice before coming to theNGA), Scheppach offered some arresting statistics to buttress his argument thatwhat the states are going through today is historic—and by nomeans close to being over. From1978 to 2008, state
revenues grewby an average of 6.5 percent annually. In just one year (1983) did state revenues actually fall, and then by less than 1 percent.During 2009-10, states sawtheir revenues decline for five quarters, once by 16.8 percent. “You basically had revenues
fall off a cliff,” he said. “The financialmeltdown and the great recessionwas just a huge game- changer, and I think it’s going to last a decade in terms of state impacts.” Though the recessionmay be over officially, history shows that
for the states, theworst times come in years one, two and three after the recession ends. Scheppach said stateswould probably not return to revenue levels they enjoyed in 2008 until 2013 or 2014. So after four decades inwhich
revenues rose virtually interrupted atmore than 6 percent annually, states are in the middle ofwhat could be five yearswith no net revenue growth.Once revenues return to prior levels, stateswill have unmet needs to dealwith, plus the arrival of the newhealth-care lawand the financial costs itwill entail. “When you put that all
together and add health-care reformin themiddle of that in 2014,we’re in a lot of trouble,” he said. Scheppach sees no alternative
tomajor cuts in education funding by the states.Higher education has already felt the pinch, but that is likely to extend to elementary and secondary funding, aswell. “Basically, health care is eating our seed corn,” he said. He recalled the period of the
1980s and early 1990s,when a group ofmostly Southern
governors led the push for education reformin their states and later, several northern governors pushed reforms in the welfare systemthat became models for national changes. Other governorswrestledwith the relationship between Washington and the states— who should dowhat. He describes that as “the
leadership period” in state government, an extraordinarily fertile era for innovation and
experimentation.Are those days over?Are today’s state executives doomed only to preside over retrenchment? Ironically, Scheppach thinks not.He sees this era as one of potentially significant creativity and modernization in the states. “So far they’ve been in sort of a
survivalmode,which is consolidate, cut, furlough, fire,” he said of contemporary governors. “But nowyou’ve got to look forward and say: ‘We are in a different growth path.Howdo we redesign the programs, from prisons to elementary and secondary to pensions?’ . . . In thatway it’s awatershed.” Scheppach cited IndianaGov.
MitchDaniels (R) as one governor alreadymoving along this track. “He sawit coming and has done a lot of redesign and streamlining,” he said.He also mentionedNewJerseyGov. Chris Christie (R) as another state executive tacklingmajor changes. “He’s frank and blunt aboutwhere he’s coming from: ‘I’mgoing to hit you upside the head,’ and then he hits you,” he said. “He’s not sneaking up on you.” Scheppach expressed
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optimismthat two incoming Democratic governors— California’s Jerry Brown andNew York’sAndrewCuomo—will tackle the fragile fiscal condition of their stateswith fresh eyes and fresh ideas. Scheppach has seen changes in
theNGAover the years.He misses some of themore vigorous debates the governors once engaged in, both privately and publicly.He fears that the state- federal relationship has deteriorated.He seesmore partisanship even in an organization that generally avoids openwarfare.Hewishes governors had a larger voice in the health-care debate this past year. But he has fewreal regrets as he prepares to leave after the annualmeeting thiswinter. FormerNGAchairs offered
bipartisan praise for thework Scheppach has done over the years. “Ray Scheppach is a beacon of fairness in a partisan sea,” saidMichael Leavitt, a former governor ofUtah. “It’s combative and partisan in the world he’s lived in, and to prosper and survive and be respected on both sides of the aisle is tribute to his skill and evenhandedness.” FormerVermont governor
HowardDean said: “He knows policy aswell as anybody in Washington.He has just an extraordinary institutional memory and great ability to get alongwith people across the aisle and survive.” Dean,who can be as combative
a partisan as the best of them, wasNGAchairwhen Republicans captured Congress in 1994,which briefly threatened the organization’s cohesion and put Scheppach in the cross hairs. “Hewas very thoughtful, unflappable, careful, not given to extreme views of either side,” he said. Those are goodmeasures of
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the kind of contribution Scheppach hasmade to the national debate over almost 30 years and a reminder of the importance of the states in helping solve the country’s problems.
balzd@washpost.com
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