D4 WEEK16TELEVISEDGAMES
6Smarter Stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats User picks are from The Post’s free, weekly NFL pick ’em game, where you can win great prizes, form groups to play against your friends, see how you fare against our experts or just play for fun. Sign up today at
washingtonpost.com/pro-picks
EZ SU K NFL WEEK 16
KLMNO 6
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
www.washingtonpost.com/theleague
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
1 p.m.WUSA-9,WJZ-13, Ravens by 31/2
With a win, the Ravens would clinch a playoff spot for the third straight season and stay in the hunt with Pittsburgh for a division title. The Browns are looking to bounce back after losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati. Cleveland Coach Eric Mangini’s fate could hinge on the outcome of games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh on Jan. 2. Peyton Hillis has 11 rushing TDs, the most by a Cleveland back since Jim Brown’s 12 in 1963.
SMARTER STATS: The Ravens’ defense is coming around at just the right time for a playoff push. InWeeks 1-9, they ranked 13th in defensive rushing efficiency and 13th against the pass. In Weeks 10-14, they’ve upped those ranks to eighth against the pass and first against the run.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 95% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
NewEngland at Buffalo 1 p.m., Patriots by 71/2
MATCHUP
The Patriots have won 14 straight against the Bills. The Pats have played a league-record six games without a turnover, and they have only nine turnovers this year. The NFL-low for a 16-game season is 13. QB Tom Brady has not thrown an interception in his past 292 attempts, 17 shy of breaking Bernie Kosar’s NFL record.
NewYork Jets at Chicago 1 p.m., Bears by 1
The Jets would clinch a second straight playoff spot with a win or a tie, a loss or tie by Jacksonville or a loss or tie by Indianapolis. A win would be the Jets’ 11th and mark the fourth time they’ve finished with more than 10. The Bears clinched their third NFC North title in six years last week. Currently a No. 2 seed, they can finish no lower than third.
Tennessee at Kansas City 1 p.m., Chiefs by 5
The Titans’ Kerry Collins needs 94 yards passing to become the 12th QB with 40,000 yards. Marc Mariani needs five yards on kickoff returns to set a Titans season record. Chiefs RB Thomas Jones has 844 consecutive touches without a lost fumble, the second-longest streak among active players behind the Falcons’ Tony Gonzalez.
San Francisco at St. Louis 1 p.m., Rams by 21/2
One season after going 1-15, the Rams would clinch the NFCWest and secure their first playoff berth since 2004 with victories over the 49ers and Seahawks. The Rams have scored more than 20 points only twice all season. The Niners need to win their last two to have a shot at ending a seven-year playoff drought.
Detroit at Miami 1 p.m., Dolphins by 31/2
Detroit has been outscored by only 21 points this year, compared with deficits of 232 last year and 249 in its winless 2008 season. The Lions are second to the Colts in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns 67 percent of the time. Miami’s 1-6 home record is the NFL’s worst. Last week’s loss eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention.
Seattle at Tampa Bay 4:15 p.m., Buccaneers by 61/2
The Seahawks have dropped four of five, yet they still have a shot at winning the NFCWest. The Bucs, who’ve lost three of four, need to win their last two and receive help from others to earn a wild-card spot. Tampa Bay’s MikeWilliams and Arrelious Benn have combined for 82 receptions, the most by any NFL rookie receiving tandem.
San Diego at Cincinnati 4:05 p.m. Chargers by 71/2
The Chargers have won 20 of their past 21 games in December. QB Philip Rivers’s career passer rating in December is 100.0, the best in league history. San Diego has allowed only seven points in its past two games, its best showing since 2006. Kansas City and San Francisco converted only two third-down plays combined.
Indianapolis at Oakland 4:05 p.m., Colts by 3
With a win, the Raiders would end a string of seven straight losing seasons. Oakland has an NFL-best three games with at least 500 yards. Raiders rookieWRJacoby Ford has scored touchdowns on a run, catch and kickoff return this season. The Colts have scored on 48 of 49 trips inside the red zone, including 36 straight.
Houston at Denver 4:05 p.m., Texans by 21/2
Broncos rookie QB Tim Tebow rushed for 78 yards in his first start last week, the second-most by a QB in franchise history. NorrisWeese has the top mark—120 at Chicago in 1976. Hall of Famer John Elway’s best rushing total was 70 yards at Oakland in 1996. Texans QB Matt Schaub has rushed for 27 yards total in 14 games.
AFC EAST
W L T PCT. PF PA
yNew England ... 12 2 0 .857 446 303 N.Y. Jets ........... 10 4 0 .714 295 259 Miami .................. 7 7 0 .500 239 261 Buffalo ................ 4 10 0 .286 273 353
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Indianapolis ........ 8 6 0 .571 381 342 Jacksonville ........ 8 6 0 .571 319 365 Tennessee ........... 6 8 0 .429 322 282 Houston .............. 5 9 0 .357 333 386
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
yPittsburgh ....... 11 4 0 .733 334 223 Baltimore .......... 10 4 0 .714 324 253 Cleveland ............ 5 9 0 .357 252 271 Cincinnati ............ 3 11 0 .214 281 362
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Kansas City ......... 9 5 0 .643 322 281 San Diego ............ 8 6 0 .571 388 260 Oakland ............... 7 7 0 .500 353 330 Denver ................ 3 11 0 .214 292 415
NFC EAST
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
4:15 p.m.,WTTG-5, WBFF-45, Packers by 3
The Giants would clinch a playoff berth with a win, and the Packers would get in with wins in their last two games. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers returned to practice this week and is expected to start. Rodgers sat out last Sunday’s loss atNew England with his second concussion of the season.
SMARTER STATS: You can expect both Eli Manning and Rodgers to be under fire in this game; the Giants and Packers are two of the four NFL teams with at least 40 sacks and 15 interceptions. That may benefit the Packers more, since the youngerManning leads the NFL in interceptions (20), and 11 of them have come on the road.
USERS PICKING THE GIANTS 52%
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
8:20 p.m.,WRC-4,WBAL-11, Eagles by 141/2
EaglesWRJeremyMaclin needs 110 yards receiving to reach 1,000. That would give the Eagles two players with 1,000 yards for the first time in team history.WRDeSean Jackson already has surpassed the mark. Vikings rookie QB JoeWebb could make his first career start if Brett Favre can’t play because of a concussion.
SMARTER STATS: When looking at the greatness of Michael Vick’s season, it’s good to start with his passer rating in key situations.He has a 113.8 rating in the fourth quarter (only David Garrard is better) and a 109.7 rating on the road (three points better than Tom Brady), and 44.9 percent of his third-down passes have gone for first downs.
USERS PICKING THE EAGLES 98% SMARTER STATS
The 2010 Patriots have the most efficient offense of at least the past 20 years, and one reason is Tom Brady’s ability to hit his receivers inside the opposing 10-yard line. WRWesWelker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have 19 catches inside the 10 even before yards after catch—by far the most of any team in the league.
Bears QB Jay Cutler has been playing very well lately as he gets used to Mike Martz’s offense. But he has a major challenge in the Jets, who have allowed a league-low 51.4 percent catch rate. The Bears have given up a 63.2 percent catch rate, but no team forces more dropped passes than Chicago (38).
Have the Chiefs been smart in limiting carries for speedster running back Jamaal Charles, and putting him in a tandem with Jones? Many smaller, faster backs wear out over time, but that’s not the case with Charles, who averages six yards per carry on his first 10 carries of a game and a league-leading 7.5 yards per carry on carries 11-20.
Rams QB Sam Bradford may have finally hit the rookie wall. The talented passer hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his past three games, but he has thrown five interceptions. His nine fourth-quarter interceptions lead the NFL this season and only New Orleans’s Drew Brees has as many red zone interceptions (four).
ThroughWeek 14, the Lions led the NFL with 122 penalties, one of several reasons their overall offensive and defensive performances do not show up in their won-loss record. Detroit goes into this game with a 4-10 record, but an EstimatedWins total (based on overall efficiency) of 6.3. The 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars have the same EstimatedWins total.
Now that DTs Brian Price and Gerald McCoy are lost for the season with injuries, Tampa Bay is allowing 4.9 running back yards per carry (the highest total in the league) and no team gives up a higher percentage of rushing yards from five to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage than the Bucs.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer may be on the way out, but he’s not getting great help from his receivers. The combination of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens is the NFL’s only duo with 10 or more dropped passes each through 14 games—Owens leads the league with 11 (tied with ReggieWayne of the Colts), and Ochocinco has 10.
How does Peyton Manning deal with the fact that he’s had a sub-par running game for most of the season? He passes on first down. In 2010, Manning is tied with Drew Brees of the Saints for second in the NFL with 141 first-down passes. Only Atlanta’s Matt Ryan (163) has more.
It’s getting tougher and tougher to excuse the coaching in Houston; there’s certainly enough firepower on the offensive side of the ball for the Texans to threaten a playoff run. Andre Johnson leads the league with six 100-yard games and Arian Foster has the NFL’s most yards from scrimmage with 1,895.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Falcons by 21/2
The Falcons, who already have clinched a playoff spot, can lock up the NFC South and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a win. Atlanta has claimed only three division titles in its 44-year history. The Saints have won six of seven games and would clinch a playoff spot with a victory.
SMARTER STATS: The Falcons currently have a hold on the NFC South, but there are trends to worry about—they’ve gone from 13th in rushing efficiency in the first half of the season to 27th in Weeks 10-14, just as the Saints are hitting an uptick in the same category. The Saints ranked 25th in rushing efficiency in the season’s first half, and they’ve been sixth ever since.
USERS PICKING THE FALCONS 66% USER PICKS
96% picked the Patriots
60% picked the Bears
87% picked the Chiefs
77% picked the Rams
73% picked the Dolphins
95% picked the Buccaneers
96% picked the Chargers
78% picked the Colts
76% picked the Texans
W L T PCT. PF PA
Philadelphia ...... 10 4 0 .714 412 339 N.Y. Giants .......... 9 5 0 .643 360 288 Washington ........ 5 9 0 .357 268 343 Dallas .................. 5 10 0 .333 380 423
SOUTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
yAtlanta ............ 12 2 0 .857 369 261 New Orleans ..... 10 4 0 .714 354 270 Tampa Bay .......... 8 6 0 .571 280 290 Carolina ............... 2 13 0 .133 186 377
NORTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
zChicago ............ 10 4 0 .714 293 242 Green Bay ........... 8 6 0 .571 333 220 Minnesota ........... 5 9 0 .357 244 314 Detroit ................ 4 10 0 .286 308 329
WEST
W L T PCT. PF PA
St. Louis .............. 6 8 0 .429 258 295 Seattle ................ 6 8 0 .429 279 363 San Francisco ...... 5 9 0 .357 250 314 Arizona ............... 5 10 0 .333 282 396
y-clinched playoff spot z-clinched division
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148 |
Page 149 |
Page 150 |
Page 151 |
Page 152 |
Page 153 |
Page 154 |
Page 155 |
Page 156