The result could be a dangerous cycle: Iran rebuilds, America destroys what it rebuilt, Iran retaliates, and Trump orders another round of attacks.
than 1 million Iranian jobs had been lost by late May, according to a Labor Ministry official, while ordinary Irani- ans were cutting spending on food and other necessities.
HORMUZ OPENS Perhaps Trump’s strongest argument for victory is the changing situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran initially demonstrated that it
could turn the narrow waterway into an economic weapon, disrupting a route that carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war. But the United States has steadi-
ly attacked Iranian radars, missile launchers, maritime assets, and mine- laying capabilities while escorting and redirecting commercial traffic. Bessent told Newsmax that at least
10 million barrels of oil a day were again passing through Hormuz, with one recent day possibly reaching 15 million to 17 million barrels. Prewar traffic was approximately
20 million barrels a day. That is a significant improvement,
although commercial shipping remains far below normal by some measures. Iran also retains the ability to threaten tankers and disrupt traffic again. And that is where Trump’s victory strategy faces its biggest danger.
DANGER: RUSSIA AND CHINA Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged continued assistance to Teh- ran during a recent meeting with Ira- nian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Russia has provided Iran with target- ing assistance, while Tehran previ- ously supplied Moscow with drone technology used in Ukraine. China is another problem. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Wesley Clark told
Newsmax that Moscow and Beijing have a strategic interest in keeping Washington trapped in a costly Mid- dle Eastern confrontation. “There’s no doubt that Russia and
China are aiding Iran,” Clark said. He said Tehran is receiving technol-
ogy, jet engines, and targeting help from Russia, and rocket fuel from China. A senior Iranian official told
Reuters that Tehran was shifting from a defensive posture to a “fully offen- sive” strategy, and was prepared to escalate in the strait and elsewhere if diplomacy failed. The result could be a dangerous
cycle: Iran rebuilds, America destroys what it rebuilt, Iran retaliates, and Trump orders another round of attacks.
GROUND WAR SCENARIO The most dangerous wildcard is whether air and naval power eventu- ally prove insufficient. Robert Pape, a University of Chi-
cago political scientist and longtime adviser on military strategy, estimates that conquering and controlling Iran could require between 750,000 and 1.5 million American troops — a politi- cally and militarily staggering com- mitment. He considers a smaller operation
more plausible. Trump, Pape says, could ultimately
consider deploying 5,000 to 20,000 troops to seize a nuclear installation believed to be approaching a weap- ons breakthrough, capture an Iranian island, or establish a limited beachhead. “Between now and the midterms,
or now and January, the odds are still better than not that Trump will be doing one of these limited ground force options,” Pape predicted. The danger is that a limited opera- tion does not stay limited.
ISRAELI WILDCARD Trump increasingly seems ready to say the central military mission has been accomplished. Benjamin Netanyahu is sending a very different message. The Israeli prime minister has long
argued that Iran’s enriched uranium must be removed, its enrichment facil- ities dismantled, and its ballistic mis- sile and proxy capabilities neutralized. In May, he said the campaign
had “accomplished a great deal,” but insisted “it’s not over.” His position has since hardened. Netanyahu, who faces parlia-
mentary elections in October, said that overthrowing Iran’s leadership remains a “central task” and is “within reach.” Israel’s defense minister, Israel
Katz, has meanwhile warned that another Iranian attack on Israel would bring a massive Israeli response against Iranian military, energy, and other infrastructure. That leaves Washington and Jeru-
salem with potentially different defini- tions of victory. Trump appears increasingly inter-
ested in containment: Iran without a nuclear weapon, Hormuz open, Teh- ran economically isolated, and Ameri- can forces positioned to punish any renewed aggression. Netanyahu still sees an unfin-
ished enemy. For Trump, declaring victory could
therefore prove much easier than end- ing the conflict. The president can credibly argue
that Iran today is militarily weaker, economically poorer, and strategically more isolated than it was on Feb. 28. But Iran has survived. Trump may soon declare the war won. The real test will be whether he can
make victory stick. OCTOBER 2026 | NEWSMAX 7
DESTRUCTION/ MAJID SAEEDI/GETTY IMAGES
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