Politics


Trump’s Timing on Iran — Too Early, or Too Late?


President needs major breakthrough at right moment to galvanize GOP voters before midterms.


W BY JERRY MCGLOTHLIN


ith election day just a few weeks away, Republicans are defend- ing narrow majorities in


both chambers of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of three


House seats to take control of that chamber and four seats to capture the Senate. The broader political environ-


ment appears to favor Democrats. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Aug. 24 put President Donald Trump’s job approval at 33%, while just 31% sup- ported U.S. military action against Iran.


The war began with U.S.-Israeli


strikes on Feb. 28. In testimony on July 21, War Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated its cost at $37.5 billion. The Pentagon’s Defense Casualty Analysis System reports 18 American service members have been killed and more than 750 wounded. Trump initially predicted the cam-


48 NEWSMAX | OCTOBER 2026


paign would last four to five weeks. Six months later, a June memorandum intended to provide a path toward ending the conflict has failed, and the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz continues. The political consequences are not


lost on Tehran, according to Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a political scientist and vice provost at Missouri University of Science and Technology. “They are certainly going to do


whatever they can to hurt him in the midterms,” Boroujerdi said of Iran’s leaders, adding that Tehran is “really not in a hurry” to reach a resolution. That leaves Republicans con-


fronting a question that goes beyond whether a positive development could improve their political stand- ing: Could one occur at precisely the right time — and remain credible long enough — to influence voting behavior before Nov. 3?


90% APPROVAL History shows that major national security events can dramatically alter presidential approval, but those effects can be fleeting. Former President George W. Bush’s approval rating stood at 51% in


Gallup polling conducted Sept. 7-10, 2001. It jumped to 86% immediately after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and reached 90% by Sept. 21-22, the high- est presidential approval rating Gal- lup had recorded. Nearly all that increase occurred


before the United States began com- bat operations in Afghanistan on Oct. 7, 2001. The 1991 Gulf War produced a dif-


ferent type of surge. President George H.W. Bush’s approval rose from 64% before Operation Desert Storm to 82% after it began, and eventually reached 89% when the operation ended. Political scientists generally


describe such rally effects as temporary and most likely when an event is sud- den, highly visible, and accompanied by bipartisan support or diminished criticism from opposition leaders. Political scientist John Mueller,


whose research helped establish the modern theory of the “rally around the flag” effect, identified three character- istics of events capable of producing such a response: They are internation- al, directly involve the United States and president, and are “specific, dra- matic, and sharply focused.” A prolonged conflict involving dis-


TOM WILLIAMS/CQ-ROLL CALL, INC VIA GETTY IMAGES


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