Politics


Latinos, Crucial to Win in ’24, Turn on GOP


D BY KATHRYN MCKENZIE


onald trump’s 2024 vic- tory was powered by one of the most consequential political realignments in


modern presidential politics: the dra- matic movement of Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party. Now the question for Decision 2026


is whether the GOP can keep them. So far, it’s not looking good. Pew Research Center’s validated-


voter study found Trump won an extraordinary 48% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, up from just 36% in 2020. Among Hispanics who voted in 2024 but sat out 2020, Trump won a remarkable 60%. That seismic shift helped Trump


return to the White House and put Republicans in control of Washington. But what Latinos giveth, Latinos


can taketh away. Trump’s standing with Hispan-


ics has deteriorated sharply during his second term. An April Pew survey found approval among Latinos who actually voted for Trump had fallen to 66% — down 27 points from the begin- ning of his term. Immigration appears to be a major


reason. Many Hispanic Trump voters sup-


ported a crackdown on illegal immi- gration, particularly criminals and recent border crossers. But Equis Research found 65% of Latino Trump voters initially believed his deporta- tion program would concentrate on those groups. By March 2026, 61% of Hispan-


ics disapproved of Trump’s han- dling of immigration, while only 35% approved. By 65%-30%, Latinos said enforcement had gone “too far.” The administration’s highly vis-


ible and sometimes violent ICE raids brought arrests into Hispanic com-


56 NEWSMAX | OCTOBER 2026


By March 2026, 61% of Hispanics disapproved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while only 35% approved. By 65%-30%, Latinos said enforcement had gone “too far.”


munities, with critics pointing to cases involving longtime workers, legal resi- dents, and even citizens. Hispanic Republican lawmakers themselves warned that a haphazard deportation strategy threatened the GOP’s historic 2024 gains. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a popu-


lar Miami Republican, has been criti- cal of overzealous enforcement. “Some of the most shameful


moments in our past as a country relate to how we have treated immi- grants who are not criminals,” she said. “And we are in one of those moments.” Trump eventually changed course


at the top. Kristi Noem left Homeland Security


and was replaced by former Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, while border czar Tom Homan gained greater influ- ence over enforcement strategy. The administration has shifted away from some headline-grabbing raids toward a less theatrical approach. The numbers remain enormous. Government data showed nearly 50,000 ICE arrests in July alone, the highest monthly figure of Trump’s second term.


Politically, the consequences could


be enormous. America had 36.2 million Hispanic


eligible voters in 2024, up nearly 4 mil- lion in four years. Texas alone had about 6.5 million,


representing roughly 32% of its eli- gible electorate; Florida had 3.5 mil- lion, or 22%. That makes the Hispanic vote criti-


cal not only in Texas and Florida but potentially in competitive races across the Sun Belt and Midwest. Republicans still have cards to play. Trump’s 2024 Hispanic supporters


were heavily motivated by the econ- omy, crime, and immigration. Many also responded to the GOP’s culturally conservative message. The GOP successfully persuaded


millions of Hispanics in 2024 that Dem- ocrats had moved too far left on the economy, border, and cultural issues. In 2026, Republicans face a differ-


ent challenge: convincing those same voters that the party they helped put in power remains on their side. If they cannot, the great Latino


wave that helped elect Trump could become the undertow that costs Republicans Congress.


ELIZABETH CONLEY/HOUSTON CHRONICLE VIA GETTY IMAGES


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