Politics


Stay-Home Voters Hold Key to Tight Midterm Races


With Trump off ballot, it will be harder to motivate crucial independents to turn out.


BY ADELE MALPASS I


n politics, it’s often said: Win the independent voter and you win the election. National exit polls show a striking pattern in midterm elections: Independent voters have repeatedly broken toward the winning party — the party making the biggest electoral gains. But deeper analysis shows that most independents’ voting


behavior often looks remarkably partisan. In 2024, 87% of Republican-leaning independents voted for


Donald Trump, while 91% of Democratic-leaning independents voted for Kamala Harris, according to Pew Research Center’s study of validated voters. But a closer look suggests the more consequential swing voter


may be the one who swings between voting and staying home. Pew Research Center tracked the same group of voters through the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections using oficial voter records. Only 37% of eligible adults voted in all three elections. Among Americans who voted in both the 2018 and 2022


midterms, just 3% switched from a Democratic House candidate to a Republican and 2% switched from Republican to Democrat. The movement between voting and not voting was much


larger. About 21% of 2022 voters had not voted in the 2018 midterm. Those returning voters favored Republican congressional candidates 58% to 40%. This creates an important question heading into the 2026


midterms: Which party can identify and mobilize its stay-home voters — including voters who came out in the 2024 presidential election but have a history of skipping midterms. For Republicans, there is an additional challenge: Trump will not be on the ballot. That puts a premium on message and personal outreach —


giving irregular voters a reason to participate and then reaching them directly to turn that preference into a vote.


Adele Malpass is Newsmax Washington bureau chief.


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