amount by the end of September. Expect hundreds of millions to be
spent on this race. Rogers’ Focus: Rogers is concentrat-
ing on El-Sayed’s far-left, progressive record, particularly his past state- ments about Israel and associations with controversial Muslim activists. Republicans believe those positions could cost El-Sayed support among Jewish voters, independents, and moderate Democrats — constituencies that could prove decisive in a close Michigan election. El-Sayed’s Focus: El-Sayed is seek-
EL-SAYED
ing to define Rogers as a convention- al Trump Republican whose return to Washington would strengthen the GOP majority. His campaign is also emphasizing economic issues and attempting to recreate the pro- gressive coalition that carried him through a Demo-
cratic primary against a heavily estab- lishment-backed opponent.
3
IOWA It’s the Beef! State of Play: After weeks of
surveys and political analysis suggest- ing Iowa’s Senate contest was a toss- up, Republican Rep. Ash- ley Hinson appears to have established an advantage over Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek. A recent Emer- son poll showed Hinson, a Trump-aligned Repub- lican and former televi- sion anchor, leading Turek statewide 50%-45%. Turek, a Paralympic gold medal-
TUREK
ist who plays wheelchair basketball, is trying to keep competitive a race Republicans once expected to hold comfortably. Money Game: Hinson also holds
the fundraising advantage, bringing in approximately $6.75 million com- pared with $3.9 million for Turek. Both parties nevertheless view Iowa as competitive enough to warrant continued outside spending, particu- larly if national control of the Senate remains at stake. Hinson’s Focus: Hinson is making
an unusual argu- ment for a Repub- lican in a state Trump carried: She is willing to break with the president when Iowa farmers’ interests are at stake. Her oppo- sition to Trump’s support for increased beef imports has given her an opportunity to distance herself from an administration poli- cy unpopular with portions of Iowa’s farm community. She is also seeking to define Turek as too liberal for a state that has moved sharply toward Repub- licans over the past decade. Turek’s Focus: Turek is trying to
HINSON
turn Hinson’s disagreement with Trump into evidence of a larger prob- lem: Republican economic policies that Democrats say are hurting Iowa farmers and working families. His path depends on
keeping Democrat vot- ers energized while win- ning back independents and rural voters who have increasingly migrated toward the GOP.
A recent Emerson poll showed Hinson, a Trump-aligned Republican and former television anchor, leading Turek statewide 50% to 45%.
A Data for Progress poll subsequently showed Peltola defeating Sullivan 50% to 45%, with the other Dan Sullivan receiving 4%.
4
ALASKA Strangest Race of All State of Play: Alaska’s
ranked choice voting system makes its Senate contest unlike any other on the 2026 map. Four candidates advanced to the November ballot. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest-perform- ing candidates are eliminated and vot- ers’ subsequent choices redistributed until someone crosses 50%. Adding to the confusion, one of the candidates is schoolteacher Dan Sullivan — who happens to share a name with two- term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Former Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola led the senator in the initial balloting. A Data for Progress poll subsequent- ly showed Peltola defeating Sullivan 50%-45%, with the other Dan Sullivan receiving 4%. Money
Game:
National Democrats, sensing an opportu- nity in a state Repub- licans ordinarily expect to hold, have rallied behind Pel- tola. She has raised more than $18.5 mil- lion, compared with approximately $11.7 million for Sen. Sul- livan. The combina- tion of major outside interest and ranked choice voting means second-choice pref- erences — not sim- ply each campaign’s financial resources —
SULLIVAN
PELTOLA OCTOBER 2026 | NEWSMAX 45
HINSON/SCOTT OLSON/GETTY IMAGES / ROGERS/AP PHOTO/PAUL SANCYA
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